Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A longwave trough centered just west of the northern California coast will continue its slow trek eastward toward the West Coast throughout the day. As this occurs, mid-level flow will increase in a corridor from southern California northward to Idaho. The deep southerly flow will maintain moist mid-level profiles in much of the western third of the CONUS, and lift associated with the approaching trough and surface heating should foster several areas of thunderstorms. Additionally, a favorable pressure gradient and terrain-related forcing should foster areas of windy conditions across Nevada and vicinity through the evening. ...Central Nevada northward into Washington for thunderstorms... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will foster scattered areas of thunderstorms as early as mid-day while gradually increasing in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours. These storms should provide wetting rains to several areas, with isolated dry lightning strikes occurring on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores. Coverage will increase with northward extent into Oregon and southwestern Idaho throughout the day, with widespread areas of gusty outflow winds amidst areas of dry fuels suggestive of erratic fire behavior and complicated suppression efforts. A few of these wind gusts may exceed severe limits - refer to SPC Day 1 Convective Outlooks for more updates on this threat. At least pockets of dry fuels will exist as far east as eastern Idaho, and isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been highlighted in this area with storms expected through early evening. Storms will continue to lift northward and persist in many areas of Washington and Oregon overnight. ...Much of Nevada and far northeast California for elevated fire weather conditions... Surface troughing and vertical mixing processes will foster areas of 20-25 mph surface winds that will be strongest in a couple of corridors - one in the immediate lee of the Sierras and another along an axis from southeastern into east-central Nevada. Areas of critically low RH values will also exist for a few hours during peak heating, though clouds and areas of precipitation may hinder the degree of mixing/lowered RH in several areas as well. The overall scenario appears to be consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though locally critical fire weather will probably develop over southeastern Nevada for at least an hour or two. ..Cook.. 08/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas. ...Northern Rockies... Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized structures including a few supercells with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late afternoon through mid evening. ...Central High Plains... An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However, vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks. ...Coastal North Carolina... Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will support moderate instability. This region will also reside within belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough. This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a MRGL risk category this update. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Dial.. 08/09/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas. ...Northern Rockies... Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized structures including a few supercells with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late afternoon through mid evening. ...Central High Plains... An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However, vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks. ...Coastal North Carolina... Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will support moderate instability. This region will also reside within belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough. This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a MRGL risk category this update. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Dial.. 08/09/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas. ...Northern Rockies... Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized structures including a few supercells with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late afternoon through mid evening. ...Central High Plains... An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However, vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks. ...Coastal North Carolina... Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will support moderate instability. This region will also reside within belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough. This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a MRGL risk category this update. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Dial.. 08/09/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge, enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva, providing a focus for storms. To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by 21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where storms initiate. ...Oregon... Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state, and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds. ...Mid Atlantic... Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge, enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva, providing a focus for storms. To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by 21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where storms initiate. ...Oregon... Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state, and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds. ...Mid Atlantic... Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge, enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva, providing a focus for storms. To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by 21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where storms initiate. ...Oregon... Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state, and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds. ...Mid Atlantic... Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019 Read more

257
ABPZ20 KNHC 090500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The area of cloudiness and thunderstorms previously located south of
Central America has moved westward and is now over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. A low pressure area is forecast to form within this
area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend. Conditions are still
somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

As flows on the Elwha River continued to dwindle, city officials in Port Angeles made a Stage 2 water shortage declaration. Water customers were asked to voluntarily conserve water. Port Angeles Peninsula Daily News (Wash.), Aug. 5, 2019

The Shafter Fire is now contained. Resources will be

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, and over parts of the Central Plains through evening. ...Ohio Valley... Scattered storms persist near the cold front, from southern IN across central OH and into WV. These cells may produce marginally severe hail, with storm longevity aided by long, straight hodographs. Ample moisture and instability remains mainly north of the OH River, in part due to cool temperatures aloft, and will support strong storms for a few hours before the boundary layer cools and stabilizes. ...Central Plains... Widely spaced storms persist across the central High Plains, along with isolated cells into central NE and eastern OK. Given that the area is beneath the upper ridge, the loss of heating should result in a downward trend in storm strength. Marginal hail or wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms through early evening. Additional storms are possible this evening and overnight near an east-west stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across OK and into AR. While shear will remain weak, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along with nocturnal warm advection with southwesterly 850 mb flow will support scattered storms through early morning. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with rather disorganized convection. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2019 Read more

A burn ban not to exceed 90 days was issued in Williamson County by a county judge. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Hays County commissioners reinstated a burn ban for the unincorporated parts of the county. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Travis County commissioners banned burning in unincorporated parts of the county through Sept. 11. As dry weather continued, the fire potential was increasing. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Zapata County officials requested that Gov. Greg Abbott declare the county a disaster area, due to exceptional drought. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

Pastures and hay fields in the Coastal Bend were deteriorating and needed rain. Hay producers got a second cutting of hay, but need rain to make a third. Stock ponds were running dry. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 8 23:30:06 UTC 2019.

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ABE TO 30 N EWR TO 35 E POU TO 20 NNE BAF TO 20 N EEN. ..COOK..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-007-009-013-090040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-090040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-031-090040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN PASSAIC Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT 082040Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of western and central Connecticut western Massachusetts northern New Jersey southeastern New York parts of eastern Pennsylvania southern Vermont * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across southeast New York/northeast Pennsylvania and vicinity at this time will continue eastward over the next few hours, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Keene NH to 60 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Goss Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms continues
along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. A low pressure area is forecast to form within
this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue onshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
eastern Mexico tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to
gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila