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MD 1946 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WESTERN WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1946 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Great Basin...western Wyoming...far northwest Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101814Z - 102015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts possible this afternoon. A WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent is evident on water vapor imagery as a mid-level jet streak rounds the base of trough across the Pacific Northwest. Storms have begun to develop along the higher terrain southwest of SLC into northeast NV and southeast ID. MLCIN still exists away from the higher terrain, but continued heating should result in a gradual increase in storm coverage/intensity downstream. Current objective mesoanalysis shows very meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While no marked increase in buoyancy is expected, cloud free areas may see 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. With 35-45 kts of effective deep-layer shear, long hodographs, and steep mid-level lapse rates (8+ C/km observed on 12Z SLC/RIW/BOI soundings), large hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Isolated strong/severe wind gusts will be possible with fairly deep boundary layers and strong flow aloft. A WW is not anticipated this afternoon as limited buoyancy will likely temper the overall severe threat. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 41961618 42551556 43441358 44021226 43340974 42330892 41110828 39910839 39480866 39141039 40331162 41051230 41531312 41261447 41131541 41501618 41761620 41961618 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 10 18:02:07 UTC 2019.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous forecast below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS during the Day 2/Wednesday period. Stronger flow aloft will accompany the through, with a belt of 50+ knot 500 mb flow expected to traverse the Four Corners region by late afternoon. At the same time, deep boundary layer mixing may occur across parts of the Four Corners, promoting modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Parts of the Four Corners area... By afternoon peak heating, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds and 15-20% RH will become commonplace across portions of the northern Colorado Plateau, to the windward side of the central Rockies. Given modestly dry fuels in place, an elevated area was delineated to account for marginal wildfire-spread potential in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous forecast below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS during the Day 2/Wednesday period. Stronger flow aloft will accompany the through, with a belt of 50+ knot 500 mb flow expected to traverse the Four Corners region by late afternoon. At the same time, deep boundary layer mixing may occur across parts of the Four Corners, promoting modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Parts of the Four Corners area... By afternoon peak heating, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds and 15-20% RH will become commonplace across portions of the northern Colorado Plateau, to the windward side of the central Rockies. Given modestly dry fuels in place, an elevated area was delineated to account for marginal wildfire-spread potential in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous forecast below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS during the Day 2/Wednesday period. Stronger flow aloft will accompany the through, with a belt of 50+ knot 500 mb flow expected to traverse the Four Corners region by late afternoon. At the same time, deep boundary layer mixing may occur across parts of the Four Corners, promoting modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Parts of the Four Corners area... By afternoon peak heating, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds and 15-20% RH will become commonplace across portions of the northern Colorado Plateau, to the windward side of the central Rockies. Given modestly dry fuels in place, an elevated area was delineated to account for marginal wildfire-spread potential in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous forecast below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS during the Day 2/Wednesday period. Stronger flow aloft will accompany the through, with a belt of 50+ knot 500 mb flow expected to traverse the Four Corners region by late afternoon. At the same time, deep boundary layer mixing may occur across parts of the Four Corners, promoting modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Parts of the Four Corners area... By afternoon peak heating, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds and 15-20% RH will become commonplace across portions of the northern Colorado Plateau, to the windward side of the central Rockies. Given modestly dry fuels in place, an elevated area was delineated to account for marginal wildfire-spread potential in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop on Wednesday from parts of the northern and central Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the western CONUS will develop eastward to the vicinity of the northern/central Rockies by Wednesday evening. A mid-level jet attendant to this trough is forecast to overspread parts of the northern/central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Although low-level moisture will be more limited across the High Plains compared to locations farther east, steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across this area. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward off the higher terrain and into northeastern CO, far eastern WY, and the NE Panhandle by late Wednesday afternoon. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells, and large hail will likely be the main threat initially with these discrete storms. Some of the hail could be very large, especially into the NE Panhandle and vicinity where instability is forecast to quickly increase. Storms should grow upscale Wednesday evening into central NE and south-central SD as a southerly low-level jet strengthens and as storms encounter greater instability along/east of a surface front. Damaging winds will likely become the primary threat with eastward extent, and some of the wind gusts could be significant given the strong shear and instability that is forecast. Isolated tornadoes may also occur in the transition from a mainly discrete to more linear mode Wednesday evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with the low-level jet. Additional storms posing an isolated threat for all severe hazards will probably develop Wednesday evening in a low-level warm air advection regime across eastern SD into southern MN. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... Storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will likely remain displaced to the north in Canada. But, some modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should overlie the Great Lakes region into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic to the south of a surface front Wednesday afternoon. Storms may form and/or re-intensify in several small clusters and move east-southeastward across these areas through Wednesday evening. Moderate to strong instability along with weak but sufficient shear will probably support modest storm organization. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with these storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Gleason.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop on Wednesday from parts of the northern and central Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the western CONUS will develop eastward to the vicinity of the northern/central Rockies by Wednesday evening. A mid-level jet attendant to this trough is forecast to overspread parts of the northern/central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Although low-level moisture will be more limited across the High Plains compared to locations farther east, steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across this area. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward off the higher terrain and into northeastern CO, far eastern WY, and the NE Panhandle by late Wednesday afternoon. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells, and large hail will likely be the main threat initially with these discrete storms. Some of the hail could be very large, especially into the NE Panhandle and vicinity where instability is forecast to quickly increase. Storms should grow upscale Wednesday evening into central NE and south-central SD as a southerly low-level jet strengthens and as storms encounter greater instability along/east of a surface front. Damaging winds will likely become the primary threat with eastward extent, and some of the wind gusts could be significant given the strong shear and instability that is forecast. Isolated tornadoes may also occur in the transition from a mainly discrete to more linear mode Wednesday evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with the low-level jet. Additional storms posing an isolated threat for all severe hazards will probably develop Wednesday evening in a low-level warm air advection regime across eastern SD into southern MN. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... Storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will likely remain displaced to the north in Canada. But, some modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should overlie the Great Lakes region into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic to the south of a surface front Wednesday afternoon. Storms may form and/or re-intensify in several small clusters and move east-southeastward across these areas through Wednesday evening. Moderate to strong instability along with weak but sufficient shear will probably support modest storm organization. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with these storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Gleason.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop on Wednesday from parts of the northern and central Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the western CONUS will develop eastward to the vicinity of the northern/central Rockies by Wednesday evening. A mid-level jet attendant to this trough is forecast to overspread parts of the northern/central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Although low-level moisture will be more limited across the High Plains compared to locations farther east, steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across this area. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward off the higher terrain and into northeastern CO, far eastern WY, and the NE Panhandle by late Wednesday afternoon. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells, and large hail will likely be the main threat initially with these discrete storms. Some of the hail could be very large, especially into the NE Panhandle and vicinity where instability is forecast to quickly increase. Storms should grow upscale Wednesday evening into central NE and south-central SD as a southerly low-level jet strengthens and as storms encounter greater instability along/east of a surface front. Damaging winds will likely become the primary threat with eastward extent, and some of the wind gusts could be significant given the strong shear and instability that is forecast. Isolated tornadoes may also occur in the transition from a mainly discrete to more linear mode Wednesday evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with the low-level jet. Additional storms posing an isolated threat for all severe hazards will probably develop Wednesday evening in a low-level warm air advection regime across eastern SD into southern MN. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... Storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will likely remain displaced to the north in Canada. But, some modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should overlie the Great Lakes region into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic to the south of a surface front Wednesday afternoon. Storms may form and/or re-intensify in several small clusters and move east-southeastward across these areas through Wednesday evening. Moderate to strong instability along with weak but sufficient shear will probably support modest storm organization. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with these storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Gleason.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop on Wednesday from parts of the northern and central Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the western CONUS will develop eastward to the vicinity of the northern/central Rockies by Wednesday evening. A mid-level jet attendant to this trough is forecast to overspread parts of the northern/central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Although low-level moisture will be more limited across the High Plains compared to locations farther east, steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across this area. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward off the higher terrain and into northeastern CO, far eastern WY, and the NE Panhandle by late Wednesday afternoon. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells, and large hail will likely be the main threat initially with these discrete storms. Some of the hail could be very large, especially into the NE Panhandle and vicinity where instability is forecast to quickly increase. Storms should grow upscale Wednesday evening into central NE and south-central SD as a southerly low-level jet strengthens and as storms encounter greater instability along/east of a surface front. Damaging winds will likely become the primary threat with eastward extent, and some of the wind gusts could be significant given the strong shear and instability that is forecast. Isolated tornadoes may also occur in the transition from a mainly discrete to more linear mode Wednesday evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with the low-level jet. Additional storms posing an isolated threat for all severe hazards will probably develop Wednesday evening in a low-level warm air advection regime across eastern SD into southern MN. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... Storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will likely remain displaced to the north in Canada. But, some modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should overlie the Great Lakes region into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic to the south of a surface front Wednesday afternoon. Storms may form and/or re-intensify in several small clusters and move east-southeastward across these areas through Wednesday evening. Moderate to strong instability along with weak but sufficient shear will probably support modest storm organization. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with these storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Gleason.. 09/10/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

The Nethker Fire achieved 100% containment on September 3, 2019 - this will be the last update for this fire unless a future update is warranted. A local Type 5 incident organization is managing the fire now, and fire personnel remain on site to monitor and patrol the fire area.Even as the fire has been declared 100% contained, the August 30 Area Closure remains in effect for public safety. Fire wood cutting is not allowed in the closed area. The closed area is defined as all areas of the Nethker fire that have burned.Burgdorf/French Creek Road, Warren Wagon Road, Crystal Mountain Road, Burgdorf Creek Road and Ruby Meadows Road (to the trailhead) are open for public travel. The 251 Road/OHV trail #174 remain closed as they are fully within the burned area.Ruby Meadows road is open, but the first part of the road is surrounded by burned trees and vegetation - stay out of the burned area and drive past the burned area before getting out of your vehicle.Jeanette Campground and Burgdorf...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... An enhanced threat for severe hail and wind should develop this afternoon and evening across parts of the north-central Plains, mostly near the Nebraska/South Dakota line. A tornado threat exists in that area as well. ...Central/Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough currently moving across UT will track into the central and northern High Plains this evening. Model guidance suggests that midlevel height falls and lift will overspread parts of western WY and the NE Panhandle after 18z, with convective initiation occurring a few hours afterward. Storms will be focused along a surface baroclinic zone that extends from northeast WY southeastward into the NE Panhandle - then eastward across NE. Forecast soundings in vicinity of the boundary show MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and a weak cap. Initial storm structures will likely be supercellular, with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. A consensus of CAM solutions agree that storms will congeal and grow upscale through the evening as they track eastward along the boundary across NE, with a focused area of enhanced damaging wind threat. ...ID/UT/WY/MT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify early this afternoon beneath the core of the midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT and southeast ID. These storms will be relatively fast-moving and in a steep lapse rate environment. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Some activity may remain strong as it moves across northern/western WY into southern MT this evening. ...Western KS into northeast NM... Full sunshine will lead to an axis of moderate CAPE values this afternoon along the dryline from western KS into northeast NM. All model guidance shows the development of isolated thunderstorms in a deeply mixed but weakly sheared environment. A few of the storms will be capable of strong downburst winds for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MI... A weak convectively-enhanced upper trough is moving across WI. This feature will move eastward into Lower MI this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms likely to form. Rather strong winds aloft and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... An enhanced threat for severe hail and wind should develop this afternoon and evening across parts of the north-central Plains, mostly near the Nebraska/South Dakota line. A tornado threat exists in that area as well. ...Central/Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough currently moving across UT will track into the central and northern High Plains this evening. Model guidance suggests that midlevel height falls and lift will overspread parts of western WY and the NE Panhandle after 18z, with convective initiation occurring a few hours afterward. Storms will be focused along a surface baroclinic zone that extends from northeast WY southeastward into the NE Panhandle - then eastward across NE. Forecast soundings in vicinity of the boundary show MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and a weak cap. Initial storm structures will likely be supercellular, with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. A consensus of CAM solutions agree that storms will congeal and grow upscale through the evening as they track eastward along the boundary across NE, with a focused area of enhanced damaging wind threat. ...ID/UT/WY/MT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify early this afternoon beneath the core of the midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT and southeast ID. These storms will be relatively fast-moving and in a steep lapse rate environment. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Some activity may remain strong as it moves across northern/western WY into southern MT this evening. ...Western KS into northeast NM... Full sunshine will lead to an axis of moderate CAPE values this afternoon along the dryline from western KS into northeast NM. All model guidance shows the development of isolated thunderstorms in a deeply mixed but weakly sheared environment. A few of the storms will be capable of strong downburst winds for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MI... A weak convectively-enhanced upper trough is moving across WI. This feature will move eastward into Lower MI this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms likely to form. Rather strong winds aloft and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... An enhanced threat for severe hail and wind should develop this afternoon and evening across parts of the north-central Plains, mostly near the Nebraska/South Dakota line. A tornado threat exists in that area as well. ...Central/Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough currently moving across UT will track into the central and northern High Plains this evening. Model guidance suggests that midlevel height falls and lift will overspread parts of western WY and the NE Panhandle after 18z, with convective initiation occurring a few hours afterward. Storms will be focused along a surface baroclinic zone that extends from northeast WY southeastward into the NE Panhandle - then eastward across NE. Forecast soundings in vicinity of the boundary show MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and a weak cap. Initial storm structures will likely be supercellular, with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. A consensus of CAM solutions agree that storms will congeal and grow upscale through the evening as they track eastward along the boundary across NE, with a focused area of enhanced damaging wind threat. ...ID/UT/WY/MT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify early this afternoon beneath the core of the midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT and southeast ID. These storms will be relatively fast-moving and in a steep lapse rate environment. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Some activity may remain strong as it moves across northern/western WY into southern MT this evening. ...Western KS into northeast NM... Full sunshine will lead to an axis of moderate CAPE values this afternoon along the dryline from western KS into northeast NM. All model guidance shows the development of isolated thunderstorms in a deeply mixed but weakly sheared environment. A few of the storms will be capable of strong downburst winds for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MI... A weak convectively-enhanced upper trough is moving across WI. This feature will move eastward into Lower MI this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms likely to form. Rather strong winds aloft and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... An enhanced threat for severe hail and wind should develop this afternoon and evening across parts of the north-central Plains, mostly near the Nebraska/South Dakota line. A tornado threat exists in that area as well. ...Central/Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough currently moving across UT will track into the central and northern High Plains this evening. Model guidance suggests that midlevel height falls and lift will overspread parts of western WY and the NE Panhandle after 18z, with convective initiation occurring a few hours afterward. Storms will be focused along a surface baroclinic zone that extends from northeast WY southeastward into the NE Panhandle - then eastward across NE. Forecast soundings in vicinity of the boundary show MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and a weak cap. Initial storm structures will likely be supercellular, with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. A consensus of CAM solutions agree that storms will congeal and grow upscale through the evening as they track eastward along the boundary across NE, with a focused area of enhanced damaging wind threat. ...ID/UT/WY/MT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify early this afternoon beneath the core of the midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT and southeast ID. These storms will be relatively fast-moving and in a steep lapse rate environment. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Some activity may remain strong as it moves across northern/western WY into southern MT this evening. ...Western KS into northeast NM... Full sunshine will lead to an axis of moderate CAPE values this afternoon along the dryline from western KS into northeast NM. All model guidance shows the development of isolated thunderstorms in a deeply mixed but weakly sheared environment. A few of the storms will be capable of strong downburst winds for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MI... A weak convectively-enhanced upper trough is moving across WI. This feature will move eastward into Lower MI this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms likely to form. Rather strong winds aloft and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/10/2019 Read more

The 107-acre Kidder 2 Fire is located approximately ten miles southwest of Fort Jones in the Marble Mountain Wilderness. The remoteness of the fire and the steep terrain within the Kidder Creek drainage are presenting challenges for firefighter access. Water dropping helicopters have had great success supporting suppression efforts on the ground. The Pacific Crest Trail passes nearby, and hikers are advised to avoid the area, due to potential fire spreading. The weather will remain cooler than normal through Tuesday with a slight chance of rain. After Tuesday, conditions are forecast to change, warming and drying towards the end of the week, and once again predicated to cool by the weekend with a chance of thunderstorms. Fire restrictions for the Klamath National Forest are in effect as of August 1, 2019. Restrictions will continue until October 15, 2019 or until conditions require a change in restriction level. The Kidder Fire is located in the Marble Mountain Wilderness on the...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow, associated with a deepening mid-level shortwave trough, will prevail across the western CONUS during the period. Breezy conditions, with patchy areas of drier air, will result from a low-level mass response to the impinging mid-level trough, promoting very modest wildfire-spread potential across parts of the Great Basin. In addition, widespread deep-layer ascent ahead of the trough will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern portions of the Great Basin, into the Four Corners, central/northern Rockies, northwestward into parts of the Pacific Northwest. On the backside of the trough, surface to mid-level flow will be predominantly northerly/offshore, encouraging a modest Sundowner event across parts of Coastal Southern California towards the end of the period. ...Parts of the Great Basin... While elevated conditions will be mostly localized in nature in advance of the mid-level trough, some widespread 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20% RH may occur across parts of central, eastern, and southern Nevada. The most likely timing of these conditions would be after peak heating of the afternoon. Farther east into Utah, surface southwesterly winds may easily exceed 20 mph, particularly in terrain-favoring locations, but surface RH above 20% depicted by the latest model guidance suggests that elevated fire concerns will be mainly localized in nature, with an elevated delineation withheld for this outlook. ...Eastern Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... At least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours, aided by afternoon peak heating/boundary-layer mixing, and by deep-layer ascent provided by the mid-level shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving in nature, with precipitable water values under 0.75 inches and dry sub-cloud layers extending well above 700 mb in most locales. Still, fuels across these area are expected to be marginally to modestly receptive to new ignitions and subsequent fire spread on the large scale. As such, the localized threat for new dry-lightning induced fire starts precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Towards the end of the period, northerly sustained surface winds within the 15-25 mph range are expected along with 20-25% RH. Given dry fuels receptive to fire spread, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, particularly in the higher terrain of the Santa Ynez Mountains, where winds will be strongest, with the poorest RH recovery. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow, associated with a deepening mid-level shortwave trough, will prevail across the western CONUS during the period. Breezy conditions, with patchy areas of drier air, will result from a low-level mass response to the impinging mid-level trough, promoting very modest wildfire-spread potential across parts of the Great Basin. In addition, widespread deep-layer ascent ahead of the trough will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern portions of the Great Basin, into the Four Corners, central/northern Rockies, northwestward into parts of the Pacific Northwest. On the backside of the trough, surface to mid-level flow will be predominantly northerly/offshore, encouraging a modest Sundowner event across parts of Coastal Southern California towards the end of the period. ...Parts of the Great Basin... While elevated conditions will be mostly localized in nature in advance of the mid-level trough, some widespread 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20% RH may occur across parts of central, eastern, and southern Nevada. The most likely timing of these conditions would be after peak heating of the afternoon. Farther east into Utah, surface southwesterly winds may easily exceed 20 mph, particularly in terrain-favoring locations, but surface RH above 20% depicted by the latest model guidance suggests that elevated fire concerns will be mainly localized in nature, with an elevated delineation withheld for this outlook. ...Eastern Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... At least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours, aided by afternoon peak heating/boundary-layer mixing, and by deep-layer ascent provided by the mid-level shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving in nature, with precipitable water values under 0.75 inches and dry sub-cloud layers extending well above 700 mb in most locales. Still, fuels across these area are expected to be marginally to modestly receptive to new ignitions and subsequent fire spread on the large scale. As such, the localized threat for new dry-lightning induced fire starts precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Towards the end of the period, northerly sustained surface winds within the 15-25 mph range are expected along with 20-25% RH. Given dry fuels receptive to fire spread, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, particularly in the higher terrain of the Santa Ynez Mountains, where winds will be strongest, with the poorest RH recovery. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 09/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow, associated with a deepening mid-level shortwave trough, will prevail across the western CONUS during the period. Breezy conditions, with patchy areas of drier air, will result from a low-level mass response to the impinging mid-level trough, promoting very modest wildfire-spread potential across parts of the Great Basin. In addition, widespread deep-layer ascent ahead of the trough will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern portions of the Great Basin, into the Four Corners, central/northern Rockies, northwestward into parts of the Pacific Northwest. On the backside of the trough, surface to mid-level flow will be predominantly northerly/offshore, encouraging a modest Sundowner event across parts of Coastal Southern California towards the end of the period. ...Parts of the Great Basin... While elevated conditions will be mostly localized in nature in advance of the mid-level trough, some widespread 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20% RH may occur across parts of central, eastern, and southern Nevada. The most likely timing of these conditions would be after peak heating of the afternoon. Farther east into Utah, surface southwesterly winds may easily exceed 20 mph, particularly in terrain-favoring locations, but surface RH above 20% depicted by the latest model guidance suggests that elevated fire concerns will be mainly localized in nature, with an elevated delineation withheld for this outlook. ...Eastern Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... At least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours, aided by afternoon peak heating/boundary-layer mixing, and by deep-layer ascent provided by the mid-level shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving in nature, with precipitable water values under 0.75 inches and dry sub-cloud layers extending well above 700 mb in most locales. Still, fuels across these area are expected to be marginally to modestly receptive to new ignitions and subsequent fire spread on the large scale. As such, the localized threat for new dry-lightning induced fire starts precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Towards the end of the period, northerly sustained surface winds within the 15-25 mph range are expected along with 20-25% RH. Given dry fuels receptive to fire spread, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, particularly in the higher terrain of the Santa Ynez Mountains, where winds will be strongest, with the poorest RH recovery. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more