Aggregator

WW 48 TORNADO KY OH WV 272105Z - 280000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kentucky Southeast Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells should quickly progress east across the Upper Ohio Valley before the severe threat wanes this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Zanesville OH to 40 miles south of Athens OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Grams Read more

MD 0208 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Areas affected...Southwest into central Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 47... Valid 272027Z - 272230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging winds will continue into central Ohio. The primary risk will exist with two supercell storms southwest of Columbus. The eastward extent of the severe risk is unclear due to a less favorable downstream thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...Two supercell thunderstorms southwest of Columbus are expected to continue northeast. Though temperatures are a bit cooler into central Ohio, recent clearing/heating has managed to boost temperatures into the mid 50s to around 60 F (at KLCK). The CMH TDWR shows over 600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. With these very favorable wind profiles downstream of ongoing activity, some tornado risk will continue into central Ohio. This risk, however, will be modulated by the quality of the thermodynamic environment. Some heating will continue to occur as clouds diminish, but moisture is also more limited with eastward extent. The need for an additional watch into parts of eastern Ohio is unclear. Convective trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 38958391 38948408 39018417 39188409 39618396 40008407 40258382 40408310 40458221 40328175 40038160 39378200 39058301 39038349 38998382 38958391 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIE TO 5 E MIE TO 10 NE MIE. THE WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY ONCE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST OF JAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. ..SMITH..02/27/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC075-135-272020- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JAY RANDOLPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio. ...20Z Update... Little was changed from the previous outlook except to reduce severe probabilities behind the main front, and across central KY where drying is occurring. Otherwise, shear remains strong across the warm sector, which is bounded to the north by a warm front roughly from central OH into northern WV. Temperatures rising into the 60s F with mid 50s F dewpoints may be sufficient to support several supercells with a few tornadoes possible beneath the cold pocket aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio. ...20Z Update... Little was changed from the previous outlook except to reduce severe probabilities behind the main front, and across central KY where drying is occurring. Otherwise, shear remains strong across the warm sector, which is bounded to the north by a warm front roughly from central OH into northern WV. Temperatures rising into the 60s F with mid 50s F dewpoints may be sufficient to support several supercells with a few tornadoes possible beneath the cold pocket aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.... ...West Texas, the Panhandle and eastern New Mexico... Gusty west/southwesterly surface flow is forecast to gradually intensify through the early afternoon hours as a lee trough deepens across the southern High Plains. Area soundings show surface gusts near 30-35 mph will be possible along with afternoon RH values below 15%. While area fuels remain somewhat less favorable than normal for large fire spread, sufficient overlap of dry and windy conditions exists to support critical fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere across the northeastern Panhandle and west TX, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected though less confidence in duration/overlap and recent precipitation on fuels should temper the threat somewhat. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West, encouraging lee troughing along the High Plains Day 2/Tuesday, when dry and windy surface conditions are expected to be abundant. On Tuesday afternoon, boundary-layer mixing and downslope flow will encourage RH to dip to 10-15 percent on a widespread basis. Sustained surface winds over 20 mph should overlap this dry air for several hours during the afternoon. Critical highlights were introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, and where recent rainfall should have had minimal impact on dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.... ...West Texas, the Panhandle and eastern New Mexico... Gusty west/southwesterly surface flow is forecast to gradually intensify through the early afternoon hours as a lee trough deepens across the southern High Plains. Area soundings show surface gusts near 30-35 mph will be possible along with afternoon RH values below 15%. While area fuels remain somewhat less favorable than normal for large fire spread, sufficient overlap of dry and windy conditions exists to support critical fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere across the northeastern Panhandle and west TX, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected though less confidence in duration/overlap and recent precipitation on fuels should temper the threat somewhat. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West, encouraging lee troughing along the High Plains Day 2/Tuesday, when dry and windy surface conditions are expected to be abundant. On Tuesday afternoon, boundary-layer mixing and downslope flow will encourage RH to dip to 10-15 percent on a widespread basis. Sustained surface winds over 20 mph should overlap this dry air for several hours during the afternoon. Critical highlights were introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, and where recent rainfall should have had minimal impact on dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Gradual height rises and anticyclonic flow aloft will develop over much of the East on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough develops over the West. Stable air will exist over much of the CONUS with a high over the Ohio Valley and cool temperatures over the interior West. Low-level moisture will linger along the Gulf Coast, extending from TX into FL, and will gradually spread northward overnight in response to a low-amplitude wave within the southwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Only modest warm/moist advection is expected as 850 mb winds increase to 20-30 kt from TX into the Deep South, and little instability will be present to support storms. To the west, cold air aloft will exist across the Pacific Northwest, as a strong jet streak dives southward within the backside of the trough. This will enhance lift over northern CA and perhaps into interior northern CA, and very weak instability may be present to support a few lightning flashes. Coastal OR and northern CA may also experience a few low-topped storms as a surface trough develops with increasing shoreline convergence. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Gradual height rises and anticyclonic flow aloft will develop over much of the East on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough develops over the West. Stable air will exist over much of the CONUS with a high over the Ohio Valley and cool temperatures over the interior West. Low-level moisture will linger along the Gulf Coast, extending from TX into FL, and will gradually spread northward overnight in response to a low-amplitude wave within the southwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Only modest warm/moist advection is expected as 850 mb winds increase to 20-30 kt from TX into the Deep South, and little instability will be present to support storms. To the west, cold air aloft will exist across the Pacific Northwest, as a strong jet streak dives southward within the backside of the trough. This will enhance lift over northern CA and perhaps into interior northern CA, and very weak instability may be present to support a few lightning flashes. Coastal OR and northern CA may also experience a few low-topped storms as a surface trough develops with increasing shoreline convergence. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Southern High Plains... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only a few minor adjustments. Portions of southeastern CO were included in the Elevated area for strong downslope flow and low humidity this afternoon. Area fuels have remained mostly dry suggesting elevated to locally critical fire-weather potential. Farther south across eastern NM and portions of west TX, localized areas of critical conditions may occur this afternoon and evening. Enhanced downslope flow will likely support sub-critical RH with wind gusts near 30 mph. However, the spatial and temporal overlap of the critical meteorological conditions and only modestly receptive fuels from recent precipitation suggest any critical fire-weather concerns will likely remain localized. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the central U.S., with a surface low poised to develop across the southern High Plains as an embedded mid-level impulse traverses the southern Rockies today. Deep-layer, dry downslope flow should take place across the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping 15-20 percent RH for several hours. Guidance consensus is also hinting at a narrow corridor of Critical conditions across west-central portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, given the limited spatial extent of such conditions, only Elevated highlights have been introduced this outlook. Highlights mainly include areas where fuels have not been dampened by recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Southern High Plains... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only a few minor adjustments. Portions of southeastern CO were included in the Elevated area for strong downslope flow and low humidity this afternoon. Area fuels have remained mostly dry suggesting elevated to locally critical fire-weather potential. Farther south across eastern NM and portions of west TX, localized areas of critical conditions may occur this afternoon and evening. Enhanced downslope flow will likely support sub-critical RH with wind gusts near 30 mph. However, the spatial and temporal overlap of the critical meteorological conditions and only modestly receptive fuels from recent precipitation suggest any critical fire-weather concerns will likely remain localized. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the central U.S., with a surface low poised to develop across the southern High Plains as an embedded mid-level impulse traverses the southern Rockies today. Deep-layer, dry downslope flow should take place across the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping 15-20 percent RH for several hours. Guidance consensus is also hinting at a narrow corridor of Critical conditions across west-central portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, given the limited spatial extent of such conditions, only Elevated highlights have been introduced this outlook. Highlights mainly include areas where fuels have not been dampened by recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio through this afternoon. ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio through this afternoon. ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio through this afternoon. ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio through this afternoon. ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/27/2023 Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0042 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KS...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Areas affected...Southwest KS...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles...Western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 262033Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including significant wind gusts over 80 mph, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes, are expected to develop across the region this afternoon and evening. A Tornado Watch will be needed within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Significant air mass modification continues across the southern Plains ahead of an intense upper low moving out of the Southwest. Much of the eastern TX and OK Panhandles and western OK have experienced dewpoint increases of 4 to 8 deg F over the past 3 hours. This modification is expected to continue as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching low increases, likely resulting in thunderstorm initiation during the next hour or two from southwest KS across the eastern OK and TX Panhandles and into northwest TX. Wind fields, which are already quite strong, are expected to further strengthen as the system approaches. Current mesoanalysis estimates the 0-6 km shear is already 70 kt, with forecast soundings suggesting an increase to 85-90 kt is anticipated by 00Z. Forecast hodographs also show robust low veering with height, supported by 50-60 kt flow around 1 km. Forecast soundings show surface to 500 m storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across the eastern TX and OK Panhandles at 00Z. These environmental conditions are very supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, including significant wind gusts over 80 mph, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into a linear convective line is anticipated, with strong wind gusts and embedded tornadoes possible once this transition occurs. A Tornado Watch will be needed in the next hour or two to cover this potential. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36030178 37260160 37710105 37660023 37079977 36179954 33759956 33150058 33410134 34080164 36030178 Read more

WW 42 SEVERE TSTM KS 262120Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 42 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will spread rapidly northeast across southwest Kansas. Initially well-mixed thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts as the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Dodge City KS to 25 miles south southwest of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22050. ...Grams Read more

MD 0190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Areas affected...Southwest/Central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 262103Z - 262300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts is expected to develop over the next few hours across southwest KS. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for portion of the region. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s across southwest KS, while dewpoints currently remain in the upper 30s. Low-level moisture advection is expected to persist for at least the next few hours ahead of the strong shortwave trough moving out the southern High Plains. Even so, dewpoints will likely only reach the upper 40s before the surface low associated with the shortwave moves through. Despite modest thermodynamics, very strong large-scale forcing for ascent augmented by mesoscale ascent near the deepening surface low is still expected to result enough lift to overcome any convective inhibition. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with robust wind fields contributing to the potential for fast-storm motion and strong wind gusts. Given this potential for strong wind gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for portion of the region. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37450197 37890174 38490057 38899957 38979866 38389844 37949876 37460041 37380115 37450197 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Primary minor changes to the outlook include expanding the significant tornado probabilities a bit northeast toward north-central Oklahoma, and to include an additional portion of the far eastern Texas Panhandle in the Moderate Risk area. Visible imagery as well as surface observations indicate rapid changes are underway across the region with continued thinning/erosion of the low-level clouds over northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, and widespread severe wind gusts across New Mexico ahead of the upper trough. Initial storms are likely to form from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle between 21-00Z, with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes as dewpoints rise further. Cells will likely merge into a linear MCS/Derecho, producing gusts over 80 mph and isolated tornadoes across Oklahoma this evening. Strong forcing along the front should counteract convective inhibition, with severe wind both within the line and possibly behind it as post-frontal boundary-layer mixing persists. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023/ ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z. Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail. Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS, accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of 80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields. Read more