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No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. No changes were made to the previous outlook, with minimal thunderstorm activity over northern Florida, and today and tonight across parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak instability will preclude any severe risk. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. No changes were made to the previous outlook, with minimal thunderstorm activity over northern Florida, and today and tonight across parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak instability will preclude any severe risk. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad upper trough will exist over the West on Sunday with a strong midlevel jet nosing east across the Rockies and toward the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift out of the Northeast, with weak upper ridging over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will cover much of the eastern CONUS as low pressure develops over the central plains in anticipation of the upper trough. A stalled front will stretch from FL into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this boundary will become a warm front late in the period as weak southerly flow returns across TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak instability will exist beneath the cold temperatures aloft over coastal OR and northern CA, with a few weak thunderstorms expected over this region. To the east, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE will develop over the upper MS Valley overnight as the low-level jet results in theta-e advection around 850 mb and lift is enhanced near the left-entrance region of the upper jet. Weak instability is likely to preclude any hail threat with this activity. Elsewhere, weak convection may occur along the stalled front over central FL where heating will lead to weak instability in a zone of minimal surface convergence. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad upper trough will exist over the West on Sunday with a strong midlevel jet nosing east across the Rockies and toward the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift out of the Northeast, with weak upper ridging over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will cover much of the eastern CONUS as low pressure develops over the central plains in anticipation of the upper trough. A stalled front will stretch from FL into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this boundary will become a warm front late in the period as weak southerly flow returns across TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak instability will exist beneath the cold temperatures aloft over coastal OR and northern CA, with a few weak thunderstorms expected over this region. To the east, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE will develop over the upper MS Valley overnight as the low-level jet results in theta-e advection around 850 mb and lift is enhanced near the left-entrance region of the upper jet. Weak instability is likely to preclude any hail threat with this activity. Elsewhere, weak convection may occur along the stalled front over central FL where heating will lead to weak instability in a zone of minimal surface convergence. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Negligible fire-weather conditions are expected this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions may develop across Florida, but any fire-weather concerns will be brief and localized. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a mid level jet streak approaches the California coast. Some deeper mixing is anticipated which could bring some stronger flow aloft to the surface. However, this is mostly expected across western and central New Mexico where fuels are not yet receptive to large fire. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. ..Grams/Karstens.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. ..Grams/Karstens.. 03/04/2023 Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BHM TO 55 ENE RMG TO 40 S TYS TO 45 ESE LOZ. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC027-111-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY RANDOLPH GAC015-045-057-143-149-223-227-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHEROKEE HARALSON HEARD PAULDING PICKENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 61 TORNADO AL GA NC TN 031635Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Extreme southwest North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving QLCS will spread east-northeast from middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville TN to 25 miles south southwest of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RMG TO 25 E TYS TO 25 SE JKL. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-013-059-067-085-089-097-105-117-119-121-135-137-139-147- 157-187-195-219-221-241-247-257-281-291-297-311-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW CLARKE COBB DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HART JACKSON LUMPKIN MADISON OCONEE OGLETHORPE RABUN ROCKDALE STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALTON WHITE NCC011-021-023-027-043-045-075-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149- 161-173-175-199-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CLAY CLEVELAND Read more

WW 63 TORNADO GA NC SC TN VA 031940Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Georgia Western North Carolina Western South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Far southwest Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A long-lived QLCS should continue to progress rapidly east across the southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Bristol TN to 30 miles southwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BHM TO 55 ENE RMG TO 40 S TYS TO 45 ESE LOZ. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC027-111-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY RANDOLPH GAC015-045-057-143-149-223-227-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHEROKEE HARALSON HEARD PAULDING PICKENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 62 TORNADO IL IN KY 031710Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon from 1210 PM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells embedded within broken line segments will sweep east-northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and Kentucky through this afternoon. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Louisville KY to 65 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24055. ...Grams Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 64 TORNADO IN KY OH VA WV 032020Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Indiana Eastern Kentucky Southern Ohio Far southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Conditional tornado and damaging wind potential will exist for a few more hours with low-topped convection spreading east across the Ohio Valley and Cumberland Plateau. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Cincinnati OH to 55 miles southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...WW 63... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Grams Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and scattered swaths of severe damaging winds are probable into this evening from Ohio Valley towards the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... ...OH Valley... An intense mid-level cyclone continues to move northeastward through the Lower OH Valley. Recent surface analysis placed the associated surface low near EVV, and sampled substantial pressure falls (greater than 8 mb over the last 2 hours) downstream across southern Indiana. Surface analysis also revealed a very sharp warm front extending eastward from the surface low to about 20 miles north of LEX (in northern KY), and then more southeastward to about 20 miles north of JKL. Given the strong mass response, some modest northward progression of this front is still possible, despite widespread cloud cover across the OH Valley. Strong convective line currently ongoing near the surface low will likely persist for at least the next few hours before the limited buoyancy associated with the narrowing lead to weakening. However, the surface low will continue to occlude, limiting downstream moisture advection and likely keeping buoyancy very limited across portions of eastern KY, southern OH, and western WV ahead of the approaching dry slot. As such, the severe threat has decreased enough to remove Enhanced probabilities. ...Eastern TN/Northern GA/East-Central AL... As addressed in recently issued MCD #247, a fast-moving line of storms will continue eastward in eastern TN, east-central AL, and northern GA. Buoyancy with remain rather limited, due to displacement from the cyclone. However, ascent along the front will continue to promote thunderstorms amid the warm and moist air mass over the region. Strong wind fields will continue to support the threat for damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...TN to OH Valleys and the central/southern Appalachians... Two primary areas of convective activity are ongoing from MS/AL/TN border area northwest to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Leading pre-frontal squall, low-topped near the central MS/AL border with progressively deeper tops northward, will likely persist east-northeast this afternoon and reach the southern Appalachians by early evening. With broken cloudiness across AL and richer boundary-layer moisture, sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding, advecting north from the central Gulf Coast, this QLCS should ingest the northern gradient of peak surface-based buoyancy. This should result in intensification of the squall line with embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Farther north, broken convective bands are evident along the northern periphery of the warm sector near the MS/OH Rivers confluence, close to the deep surface cyclone. A robust surface pressure rise-fall couplet and the extreme low to deep-layer shear should compensate for the meager surface-based buoyancy and likely yield a mix of low-topped supercells and quasi-linear bowing segments, as convection rapidly spreads east-northeast. Tornadoes should be realized in sustained supercells and line-embedded mesovortices, a few of which could be significant. Given the supercell wind profiles and morning CAMs suggesting more broken convection, damaging winds will probably consist of scattered swaths of severe gusts from 60-80 mph. Severe potential today will be limited on the southern part by weakening DCVA and frontal convergence with southward extent, on the northern end by northward loss of boundary-layer destabilization away from the warm-frontal zone, and to the east by loss of both daytime heating and overall lift. As such, the unconditional probability gradient is kept rather broad on both sides, though the actual southern/northern/eastern cutoffs of severe could be abrupt. Read more

MD 0248 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62... FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...northern Kentucky...far southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 031940Z - 032245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind or brief tornado potential may materialize through 00Z as the low travels northeastward toward southwest Ohio. DISCUSSION...A small arcing line of storms persists ahead of the surface low, extending from southern Indiana toward the Louisville KY area. This activity will continue to pose a damaging wind threat, and a brief tornado remains possible as well as the line intersects the warm front with enhanced shear and lift. A leading area of rain and thunderstorms has limited destabilization ahead of the cold pocket aloft, and a dry slot is further eroding the moist layer from the southwest. As such, the area of severe potential appears to be dwindling over time. However, the low remains very strong, and cooling aloft will still overspread the warm front as it lifts across northern Kentucky and perhaps into far southwest Ohio after 21Z. As such, a new watch will need to be considered just north of the existing watch. ..Jewell/Grams.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 37958710 38348626 39058512 39558465 39618419 39328400 38758389 38238420 37928459 37528546 37408618 37458668 37958710 Read more