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Forage sorghum has become an attractive option for dairies and feedlots in Texas and Oklahoma as some areas have less well water due to falling aquifer levels. Less sorghum was planted in 2022, but some market analysts expect an increase in sorghum in 2023 because it requires less water than wheat or corn. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Feb 27, 2023

Water releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah were being suspended as requested by four upper Colorado River Basin states. The water was to boost the level of Lake Powell, which in late February fell to its lowest level since the reservoir filled in the 1960s. Above-normal snowpack and precipitation in the West were also expected to help refill Lake Powell. The water releases from Flaming Gorge were originally meant to continue through April. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), March 7, 2023 Four Upper Colorado River Basin states are asking the Bureau of Reclamation to suspend water releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir to allow heavy snowpack to raise the level of the reservoir rather than continuing to send water downstream to Lake Powell. The states would like the water releases to end on March 1 rather than continue through April as planned. The Upper Basin states also want the Lower Basin states to understand that water cannot be released downstream at will. As of Feb. 28, winter precipitation was above average in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. KUNC-FM 91.5 (Greeley, Colo.), Feb 27, 2023

Soil moisture was short to adequate in most North Texas counties. Most areas received rain over the past few weeks. Temperatures were up and down. Wheat and oats were improving with the recent moisture and should make more progress in the coming weeks if temperatures stay warm. Producers were fertilizing pastures. Livestock were grazing cool-season grasses. Hay was still in high demand. Livestock conditions were good overall. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 Soil moisture was short to adequate across North Texas. Heavy rainfall left some pastures soaked and muddy. Some sunshine would help grazing conditions amid the hay shortage. Wheat conditions were below normal due to the recent winter freeze. Hay was still in high demand. Livestock conditions were good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 Soil moisture levels were short to adequate. Most areas were short on moisture, but producers in other areas were dealing with extremely wet conditions. A light freeze occurred. Some counties were struggling to recover from the hard freeze earlier this winter. Most ponds were filled by the rainfall. Wheat and oat conditions were improving. Hay was still in short supply in some areas. Cedar tree pollen was high. Livestock conditions were good. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

All areas of West Central Texas needed rain, and a quick moving storm delivered trace amounts to a few areas. Wheat and oat fields needed significant moisture. Plants, including fruit trees, were breaking dormancy due to temperatures in the high-70s and low-80s. Rangeland and pasture conditions improved slightly with some cool-season grasses being grazed by livestock and wildlife. Livestock diets continued to be supplemented, but hay supplies were getting low. Some livestock producers continued to sell cattle to reduce herd sizes. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 West Central Texas pastures were greening up and creating some grazing for livestock. High winds dried the topsoil some. Wheat and oats continued to grow and provided some grazing, while oats in some locations were not expected to recover from the extreme cold in December. Many farmers were talking about sprigging some Coastal Bermuda grass this spring if it continues to stay wet. Local cattle prices were up significantly for feeders. There were also a few more small herd liquidations as drought conditions and lack of hay force selloffs. Some field preparation for Sudan grass planting continued. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 West Central Texas pastures were still short on grazing, and producers were feeding livestock hay and supplements. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

Weather in Southwest Texas was warm, dry and windy with no rain reported. Lack of moisture was limiting winter weed and grass growth. Corn and sorghum plantings were underway. Irrigated winter wheat and oats were in fair to good shape. Rangelands continued to be dry as lambing and kidding continued. Spring shearing was underway. Livestock were receiving supplemental feed and in mostly fair condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 No precipitation was reported in Southwest Texas. Temperatures were warmer before a strong cold front brought cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Corn planting was expected to start soon. Farmers finished fertilizing in preparation of planting. Oats and wheat looked better following rains in the past few weeks. Pastures continued to improve, but more spring rains will be needed for recovery. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Cattle prices were steady to high. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 Moisture conditions improved, but some areas of Southwest Texas remained dry. Wheat and oats looked fair to good under irrigation, and very few winter weeds were emerging. Supplemental feeding for livestock continued but decreased. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 6 21:15:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 6 21:15:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. into Tuesday. ...20Z Update... Lightning with convection overspreading far southern Lower Michigan appears to have diminished, as lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer have stabilized. The potential for additional lightning producing convection across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity seems rather low, as the somewhat better elevated moisture return becomes cut off from the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent now beginning to shift into and east/southeast of the Lake Erie vicinity. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates does appear to linger along an axis from near Lake Erie through western Pennsylvania, where the risk for lightning producing convection may not yet be completely negligible late this afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023/ ...Discussion... A confined swath of elevated thunderstorms may persist into the early evening along the southern rim of the Great Lakes region ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east from the Upper MS Valley. Very isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly this afternoon, along the OR/northern CA coast into the northern Central Valley amid a steep low to mid-level lapse environment within a broad upper trough. Scant buoyancy will limit updraft intensity in both regions and severe storms are not anticipated. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may impact parts of northwestern Texas and southwestern into central Oklahoma Tuesday evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather--mainly in the form of hail. ...Synopsis... A number of closed mid-level circulations have and continue to evolve within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic. By Tuesday, this will include a couple of highs in the higher latitudes of the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, a broad weak low will encompass much of the western and central Canadian Provinces into the northwestern U.S., with the most notable embedded perturbation pivoting westward and southwestward across Yukon and British Columbia. A less prominent impulse is forecast to progress inland across parts of southwestern Oregon and northern California. The southern periphery of the broader-scale cyclonic flow will curve inland across southern California into the northern Great Plains, generally in phase with another branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific. A more subtle perturbation emanating from this latter regime, and others within a separate belt emerging from even lower latitudes, appear likely to cross the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau, and eventually round the crest of mid-level ridging maintained across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast. Farther downstream, models indicate that a significant mid-level low will dig offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, the leading edge of a substantive cold intrusion now underway to the lee of the northern Rockies is forecast to nose through much of the Southeast Tuesday through Tuesday night. Southward advancement through the lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent portions of the lower southern Great Plains, may be slower. It does appear that low-level Gulf moisture return, above the shallow front across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ozark Plateau, will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development by Tuesday night. ...Southern Great Plains vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew points likely will be present to the south of the surface frontal zone. However, it appears that areas roughly from the Texas South Plains and Red River southward may remain capped by warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere. Furthermore, the surface front is already nosing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and it is appearing increasingly probable that the shallow leading edge of the cold air will reach and remain entrenched to the north of the Texas South Plains/Red River vicinity through Tuesday/Tuesday night. It does still appear possible, though, that modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to sufficient elevated instability to support at least some risk for severe hail (vertical shear should be favorable), mainly in initial storm development in response to forcing associated with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may impact parts of northwestern Texas and southwestern into central Oklahoma Tuesday evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather--mainly in the form of hail. ...Synopsis... A number of closed mid-level circulations have and continue to evolve within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic. By Tuesday, this will include a couple of highs in the higher latitudes of the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, a broad weak low will encompass much of the western and central Canadian Provinces into the northwestern U.S., with the most notable embedded perturbation pivoting westward and southwestward across Yukon and British Columbia. A less prominent impulse is forecast to progress inland across parts of southwestern Oregon and northern California. The southern periphery of the broader-scale cyclonic flow will curve inland across southern California into the northern Great Plains, generally in phase with another branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific. A more subtle perturbation emanating from this latter regime, and others within a separate belt emerging from even lower latitudes, appear likely to cross the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau, and eventually round the crest of mid-level ridging maintained across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast. Farther downstream, models indicate that a significant mid-level low will dig offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, the leading edge of a substantive cold intrusion now underway to the lee of the northern Rockies is forecast to nose through much of the Southeast Tuesday through Tuesday night. Southward advancement through the lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent portions of the lower southern Great Plains, may be slower. It does appear that low-level Gulf moisture return, above the shallow front across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ozark Plateau, will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development by Tuesday night. ...Southern Great Plains vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew points likely will be present to the south of the surface frontal zone. However, it appears that areas roughly from the Texas South Plains and Red River southward may remain capped by warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere. Furthermore, the surface front is already nosing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and it is appearing increasingly probable that the shallow leading edge of the cold air will reach and remain entrenched to the north of the Texas South Plains/Red River vicinity through Tuesday/Tuesday night. It does still appear possible, though, that modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to sufficient elevated instability to support at least some risk for severe hail (vertical shear should be favorable), mainly in initial storm development in response to forcing associated with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 5 21:15:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 5 21:15:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday. No changes were made to the existing outlook. The greatest probability of thunderstorms will be tonight from IA into southern WI as strong theta-e advection occurs ahead of the shortwave trough with left-exit region of the upper jet nosing into the region. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023/ ...IA to Upper MS Valley... Small hail will be possible within the more vigorous elevated thunderstorms that are expected to develop after sunset, but the threat for severe hail appears negligible. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the MT/WY Rockies will move east into the Upper Midwest through early morning. Downstream of this wave, persistent low-level warm theta-e advection will intensify after sunset across the Upper MS Valley. This will yield a broadening plume of elevated convection this evening. Across the southern part of the convective area, the most-unstable inflow is anticipated but MUCAPE will remain below 1000 J/kg. Guidance does depict greater-than-average spread for a D1 forecast over the degree of effective bulk shear. Speed change with height appears most pronounced within the mid to upper portion of the elevated buoyancy profile, where thermodynamic sensitivities are seen across the suite of convection-allowing/parameterized guidance. The most probable scenario is for small hail to form in the stronger updrafts across IA and spread across a portion of the Upper MS Valley before subsiding overnight. ...Elsewhere... Isolated general thunderstorms are possible in portions of central FL, northern CA, and the Great Basin. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE... No major changes will made to the current valid outlook. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected over portions of northeastern NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle. Less certainty in sustained elevated fire-weather conditions is expected farther northeast near a slow moving cold front over northwest OK and southern KS. While winds will be weaker here, very dry conditions may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential ahead of the front. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will continue on Monday across the Southwest and southern High Plains. Deep-mixing is expected west of the dryline in a very dry airmass with surface dewpoints in the single digits. This deep mixing will transport some stronger mid-level flow to the surface with sustained winds of 35 mph expected across northeast New Mexico. In addition, some weak lee troughing is anticipated in the southern High Plains which may provide some additional support for stronger surface winds. Fuels in this area are around the 70-80 percentile and will continue to dry with multiple days of very dry and breezy conditions in the region. Therefore, larger fuels may start to become more receptive to fire in addition to the dormant fine fuels present across the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM...FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.... ...Southern and Central High Plains... A few changes have been assessed to the current valid outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly eastward across portions of west-central KS and western OK. Here, west/southwest surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph with RH below 20% through the afternoon. Drying fuels could support a risk of elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther north across eastern CO, lingering snow pack should limit the northern extent of fire-weather concerns, and the Elevated area has been trimmed slightly south. Widespread critical and isolated extremely critical meteorological conditions remain likely this afternoon and evening with strong downslope winds over portions of eastern NM, southeastern CO, and the OK/TX Panhandles. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet across southern California and the southern Great Basin this morning will continue east to the central Rockies by this evening. As this stronger flow crosses the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This will result in strengthening winds across the southern and central Plains. A very dry airmass will be in place west of the dryline across much of the central and southern High Plains. In this region, deep mixing will also result in some of the stronger mid-level flow being transported to the surface. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected from northeast New Mexico and southwest Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles where both the pressure gradient and mid-level flow will be maximized amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. Single digit relative humidity is expected in this region for most of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow regime aloft will exist across the CONUS on Monday prior to an upper trough gradually amplifying over the West. Low pressure will exist over the lower MO and mid MS Valley early in the day, related to the low-amplitude lead wave nosing into the upper MS Valley and Midwest region. This low will progress east across the OH Valley, while a surface high remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. As such, higher surface dewpoints will remain along and south of the Gulf Coast for much of the period, only gradually spreading north aided by modest 850 mb flow. Instability will remain weak and capped in this area. To the west, cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will lead to steep lapse rates, and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Sporadic lightning may occur over interior portions of western OR as well, owing to daytime heating resulting SBCAPE over 200 J/kg. Winds aloft and therefore shear will remain weak in this area. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... The overall forecast remains on track with minor adjustments for the latest guidance. The Critical area was expanded into portions of southeastern CO where downslope winds near 25-30 mph, and higher gusts, may support afternoon humidity values in the single digits. Elsewhere, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected within drying fuels across the southern High Plains. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong westerly mid-level jet will persist across the Southwest into the central Plains on Sunday. This will lead to lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado during the day and a tightening pressure gradient. This pressure gradient, combined with downward momentum transport from deep mixing, will result in breezy conditions across the southern and central High Plains. Some sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Relative humidity will be very dry with widespread single-digit relative humidity expected from southeast Colorado and western Kansas into eastern New Mexico and the TX/OK Panhandles. Fuels in this area have dried considerably over the past week with increasing reports of fire each passing day. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeast New Mexico and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.