Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells particularly across central/northern portions of New York and Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ...Florida... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out. ...South-central/East Texas... A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico, turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast Arizona. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells particularly across central/northern portions of New York and Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ...Florida... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out. ...South-central/East Texas... A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico, turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast Arizona. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells particularly across central/northern portions of New York and Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ...Florida... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out. ...South-central/East Texas... A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico, turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast Arizona. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells particularly across central/northern portions of New York and Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ...Florida... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out. ...South-central/East Texas... A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico, turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast Arizona. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025 Read more

169
ABNT20 KNHC 131132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next day or two and then move westward across
Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system
during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward
over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the mid to late portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

548
ABPZ20 KNHC 131120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the northern tier of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through westerly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes vicinity on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu and again during the weekend. These features could support some severe thunderstorm potential for parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, particularly on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as a sagging cold front stalls over the Great Lakes. However, prior convection and large spread among various medium range guidance regarding timing and location of these somewhat subtle features precludes severe probabilities at this time. Strong upper ridging will develop across the south-central and southeast U.S. beginning around Day 6/Fri. Weak deep-layer flow beneath the upper ridge and lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe potential from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the northern tier of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through westerly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes vicinity on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu and again during the weekend. These features could support some severe thunderstorm potential for parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, particularly on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as a sagging cold front stalls over the Great Lakes. However, prior convection and large spread among various medium range guidance regarding timing and location of these somewhat subtle features precludes severe probabilities at this time. Strong upper ridging will develop across the south-central and southeast U.S. beginning around Day 6/Fri. Weak deep-layer flow beneath the upper ridge and lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe potential from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Read more