Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP TO 30 E PHP TO 45 NW PIR. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-071-075-085-095-102-107-117-119-121-123-150140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

057
ABNT20 KNHC 142331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 14 22:41:16 UTC 2025.

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0511 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 511 SEVERE TSTM SD 142240Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A loosely organized cluster of storms will spread eastward from southwest into central and south central South Dakota through this evening. The storm environment will favor occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, and possibly isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Pierre SD to 75 miles south southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 14 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more