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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe severe thunderstorms appear possible over parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic into New England, southern/central High Plains, and Southwest on Friday. The greatest potential for scattered damaging winds should exist from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist Friday over much of the Southwest into the northern Rockies. Downstream, an upper trough should move slowly northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and New England through the period. Between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow will remain over much of the Plains and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low over northern NY/southern Ontario should develop slowly northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper trough. Attendant cold front extending southward from the surface low across the East Coast states should bend westward across the Southeast into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture, and appreciable severe potential, should remain confined along/south of this front Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... Thunderstorms posing some threat for strong/gusty winds should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of eastern OK into western AR. This activity will likely be tied to a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance quickly east-southeastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through the day. It remains unclear whether this small bowing cluster will persist or slowly weaken through Friday morning as it approaches the Mid-South/lower MS Valley. If it can be maintained and eventually restrengthen as it progresses east-southeastward, then a corridor of greater damaging wind potential is evident from near Memphis TN to the Atlantic Coast, along/south of the weak front and outflow from prior convection. Moderate instability should develop through Friday afternoon across this area with robust diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow and around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear will promote convective organization, with the internal dynamics of the MCS or remnant MCV also providing some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds. There also appears to be some potential for additional robust thunderstorm development along the outflow of the morning activity. Regardless of which scenario plays out, enough model guidance suggests potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds to justify adding a Slight Risk. Some threat for hail may also exist with the more robust updrafts. ...Mid-Atlantic into New England... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into NY, related to convection from today that is forecast develop over the Great Lakes/OH Valley. In the wake of this morning activity, most guidance shows at least modest destabilization occurring ahead of a weak front that should advance slowly eastward through the day. Additional thunderstorms should develop by Friday afternoon along and ahead of this front in a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Even though mid-level winds do not appear overly strong, enough flow and related effective bulk shear should be present for modest updraft organization. Isolated damaging winds and hail may occur with the strongest convection. Based on latest guidance, the Marginal Risk has been expanded northward to include more of the Mid-Atlantic and parts of New England. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Model guidance indicates strong heating and orographic ascent will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing Friday from eastern WY southward to the Raton Mesa vicinity in northeastern NM. Isolated convection may also develop across western NE along/south of a weak surface boundary. It appears a relative minimum in overall thunderstorm coverage may exist south of the Palmer Divide in CO to near the CO/NM border. Still, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strengthening mid/high-level northwesterly flow with height across the southern/central High Plains should act to organize a few of the stronger updrafts. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be the primary risks. This activity will likely weaken during the evening as it moves further south-southeastward into the High Plains. ... Southeastern Arizona... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of southeastern AZ and vicinity by late Friday afternoon. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast, and this activity will likely remain high-based. Even though deep-layer shear should remain modest, some of this convection could produce isolated severe/damaging winds given the dry sub-cloud layer potential for evaporatively cooled downdraft accelerations. ..Gleason.. 07/20/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become a little more organized
this morning. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for further development of this system during the next day or so,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

The Suffolk County Water Authority urged residents to use less water to avoid stressing the aquifer. Amid moderate drought conditions, people were using more water than usual. Dan’s Papers (Southampton, N.Y.), July 19, 2023

Low hay stocks in some Western Corn Belt/High Plains states mean forage buyers will likely see continued high prices. Some livestock producers are trying to buy hay earlier this year, due to concerns about supply as drought cuts into hay production. A sale in Rock Valley, Iowa on July 13 featured 140 loads, which was higher than normal for the time of year. Fewer loads of hay were available from eastern South Dakota, due to drought. The manager of the Rock Valley auction estimated that grass hay from that area could be down 60% to 70%. In Nebraska, 9,670 tons of hay were sold the week of July 14, per the USDA Nebraska Direct Hay Report, compared to only 2,970 from last year at the same week. DTN – The Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), July 19, 2023

An Emergency Water Condition was in effect for parts of Comal County as the water storage was drawn down by high demand. Conditions leading to the emergency order were to be reassessed on Monday, July 3. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), July 19, 2023

The Texas Water Company enacted stage 3 drought restrictions for all residential, commercial and industrial customers in Bandera, Blanco, Comal, Kendall and Medina counties. The restrictions were needed as the level of Canyon Lake and the Trinity Aquifer have fallen, while at the same time water demand has risen. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), July 19, 2023

The Edwards Aquifer in central Texas dropped to its lowest level since September 2014. On Tuesday, July 18, the aquifer fell below 630 feet, with a reading of 628.7 feet at the J-17 Well in Bexar County. San Antonio remained in Stage 2 water restrictions. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), July 19, 2023

MD 1635 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...520... FOR NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Areas affected...Northern into central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518...520... Valid 192217Z - 192345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518, 520 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail will remain a threat for the remainder of the afternoon. Very large hail would be possible with the most organized supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase in northwestern Wisconsin and parts of central Minnesota. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage and intensity has been greatest over northern Minnesota into the Duluth vicinity. Large-scale ascent with the trough has helped to sustain convection that has produced several large hail reports as well as a 2.5 inch report in Itasca county. Currently, the strongest storms are moving into northwest Wisconsin. MRMS MESH data suggest large hail is probable with these storms. Activity has been more isolated in parts of central Minnesota. This may be due in part to dry low levels and entrainment as well as veered surface winds and weak convergence. However, with mid-level ascent increasing in this area, intensification of this activity is possible as it tracks southeastward to near the Twin Cities. The eastward extent of the threat will probably remain limited to due to influences from cloud cover lasting into the afternoon. Stable billow clouds are still evident on visible satellite. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45079082 44479286 44349372 44379433 44549485 44779534 44879542 45179564 45459547 45609534 45949471 46349393 47039385 47399404 47879476 48419475 48629405 48569353 48199272 46719097 46219039 45339064 45159079 45079082 Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 520 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 192215Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage over central/southwestern MN, and a favorable environment to the east across the remainder of the watch area (including Twin Cities metro) suggests a severe wind/hail threat will increase for another few hours and persist into late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Minneapolis MN to 40 miles north northeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Edwards Read more

The Wellborn Special Utility District entered stage two of its Drought Contingency Plan on July 19 as the water tower had stabilized at 36%. Residents may water outdoors on their two designated days per week. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), July 19, 2023

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..07/19/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-041-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-125-192240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-075-093-101-109-129-137-153-171-179-181- 187-193-199-203-192240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON KEARNY LANE LOGAN MORTON NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 192050Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Southwest Nebraska Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop off the mountains of central Colorado, and along a boundary extending northeastward into Kansas. All of these storms will spread southeastward this evening with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of La Junta CO to 70 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S HSE TO 30 ENE EWN TO 30 NE EWN TO 45 NE EWN TO 25 S ECG TO 20 SE ECG TO 30 ENE ECG TO 45 ESE ORF. ..JEWELL..07/19/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-055-095-177-192240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT DARE HYDE TYRRELL AMZ131-135-231-ANZ658-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 517 TORNADO NC VA CW 191705Z - 192300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over northeast North Carolina will track eastward this afternoon posing a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Elizabeth City NC to 45 miles east southeast of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/23 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-007-017-021-025-035-059-061-065-071-077-095-115-137- 192240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BELTRAMI CARLTON CASS CHISAGO CROW WING ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MILLE LACS PINE ST. LOUIS WIC005-007-013-031-095-107-113-129-192240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS POLK RUSK SAWYER WASHBURN LSZ144-145-192240- CW Read more

WW 518 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 192015Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity over northern Minnesota. These storms will track eastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of International Falls MN to 95 miles south of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192056Z - 192300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Very large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns. A watch is possible for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...In the wake of widespread morning convection across central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota, cloud breaks are supporting filtered diurnal heating of a moist air mass (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) along/south of a southward-moving cold front. Clear skies north of the front and the early-day convection/ongoing cloud coverage to the south have weakened the frontal circulation, though a surface wind shift is still evident. During the next couple of hours, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the wind shift and perhaps subtle differential heating boundaries in central NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the destabilizing boundary-layer and a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) will support supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and locally severe gusts. Thunderstorm coverage is uncertain given lingering inhibition associated with the antecedent outflow, though convective trends are being monitored for a watch for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42310154 42020159 41620142 41380109 41140070 41090018 41339961 42129854 42449812 42789751 43039675 43259661 43699652 43869681 43899735 43829799 43639900 43379977 42850084 42510130 42310154 Read more

MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UT
Mesoscale Discussion 1632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nevada and western UT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192021Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through the afternoon. Strong to severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A vorticity maximum embedded in a belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow (evident in water vapor imagery) will continue east-northeastward across eastern Nevada and western UT this afternoon into early evening. As DCVA preceding this feature overspreads a diurnally destabilizing air mass, thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase during the next few hours as boundary-layer inhibition continues to erode. While modest deep-layer shear (20-30 kt of effective shear) may limit convective organization to an extent, at least loosely organized updrafts embedded in larger clusters of eastward-moving storms will be possible. This, combined with the diurnally deepening boundary layer and steepening low-level lapse rates (characterized by inverted-V thermodynamic profiles) will support strong to severe outflow winds -- especially with any loosely organized clusters. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 41841428 41991358 41991292 41891222 41501168 41011154 40591148 39261186 38641232 38241280 38191335 38191395 38251503 38481545 38661570 39001577 39571572 40011559 40991505 41481472 41841428 Read more