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Ponds in Missouri were low and drying up further as drought conditions worsened across the state. Producers were hauling water to livestock. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), July 20, 2023

Intense drought conditions in Missouri were forcing cattle producers to sell more livestock than they normally would because pastures were drying up. Some were selling entire herds as the dry conditions meant that cattle needed their diets supplemented with hay and other grains earlier than normal. Some cattle producers never stopped feeding hay from the past winter. Flatland (Kansas City, Mo.), July 20, 2023

Grasshopper numbers were higher than usual this summer across much of Eastern Oregon. The grasshoppers reduced the yield from grass hay fields somewhat. They ate the grass as it grew, and stripped leaves from the alfalfa, leaving only stems. A rancher in the Keating Valley wore safety goggles while riding a four-wheeler to protect her eyes from the many grasshoppers. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), July 21, 2023

Christmas tree seedlings were struggling and dying for lack of moisture. Newly planted seedlings on a tree farm in Linn County were dying. After the 2013 drought, a seasoned Christmas tree grower in Buchanan County learned to mulch and water each of his thousands of trees to help them withstand future droughts. Radio Iowa (Des Moines, Iowa), July 21, 2023

Below normal rainfall over much of Minnesota led the state Department of Natural Resources to place six watersheds in a Drought Watch Response Phase. The watersheds include the Mississippi Headwaters, Western Superior, Croix, Rainy River, Upper Mississippi-Black-Root and Upper Mississippi-Maquoketa-Plum. Four other watersheds--Des Moines River, Missouri-Little Sioux, Missouri-Big Sioux, Red River--remained in various drought response phases since the summer of 2022. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (St. Paul, Minn.), June 15, 2023

The St. Croix Watershed entered the Drought Warning Response Phase, which requires public water suppliers in the watershed to implement conservation measures intended to reduce water consumption to 50% above January levels. The affected counties are Anoka, Washington, Isanti, Chisago, Pine, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Carlton and Aitkin counties. KSTP-TV ABC 5 Minneapolis/St. Paul (Minn.), July 21, 2023

The Iowa DNR urged people to be careful at Lake Manawa in Council Bluffs due to the low water levels. The water was about 20 inches below the normal pool on account of drought. The low water made it challenging to unload and load boats. Oxbow lakes adjacent to the Missouri River were lower this summer due to drought conditions over the past few years, per the Iowa DNR. WOWT TV 6 (Omaha, Neb.), July 21, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2023 20:32:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2023 21:29:14 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212031 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Depression Four is currently struggling to produce deep convection within a highly sheared environment. Convection has waned since this morning, with cloud tops continuing to warm this afternoon. The low-level center has also become more exposed with remaining convection to the east of the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMMS ADT and AiDT range from 25 to 35 knots. Given the current structure, a blend of satellite estimates and recent visible satellite trends yields an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The depression continues to be in an environment of strong upper-level westerly wind shear. The system has crossed into cooler sea surface temperatures as well, with SSTs continuing to cool along the forecast track. Given these parameters it is likely the depression will gradually weaken, becoming a remnant low by tomorrow, and dissipating by 60 hours. The system is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the depression on this general heading and speed for the next 24 hours. Afterward, the shallow remnant low is expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 124.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 124.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, becoming more westward as the depression weakens into a remnant low. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a remnant low by tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 the center of Four-E was located near 15.8, -124.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212030 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/21/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC031-035-037-077-093-107-111-123-211940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-211940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 21 18:31:03 UTC 2023.

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 534 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/21/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-211940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-211940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-019-211940- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK SULLIVAN Read more

WW 534 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NH NY VT 211700Z - 220000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Southern New Hampshire Eastern New York Southern Vermont * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon across the region, with a few intense cells possible. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Keene NH to 45 miles west southwest of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four-E, located a little more than 1000 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible on Saturday across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, Southeast, and Arizona. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain centered over much of the western CONUS Saturday, while broad upper troughing encompasses the central and eastern states. Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should be present between these two features. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of the Southeast along and south of a convectively reinforced front. But, sufficient moisture across the central Plains and Upper Midwest should be in place to support at least isolated robust convection. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest... Around 30-40 kt of northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. While low-level moisture may remain fairly shallow/limited by late July standards, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should promote the development of weak to moderate instability by late Saturday afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous, but isolated to scattered convection may still develop along and southeast of a weak surface trough. With 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, a widely spaced mix of multicells and supercells may develop and spread southeastward through Saturday evening while posing an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Based on latest guidance, have expanded the Marginal Risk to encompass more of the central Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Southeast... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of MS/AL into GA and perhaps SC. The convectively reinforced outflow/front and a separate sea breeze will likely be foci for renewed convective development by Saturday afternoon. A belt of modest westerly mid-level winds at the base of the large-scale upper trough will exist across much of the Southeast. Plentiful low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the 70s, and ample diurnal heating will likely foster moderate to strong instability by early Saturday afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop in this environment along and south of the front. Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with the more robust convection given the very moist profiles, and some clustering may occur. Isolated hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. At this point, not enough confidence exists to include greater severe wind probabilities. But, have expanded the Marginal Risk to include more of the Gulf Coast into north FL. ...Arizona... An upper-level anticyclone will remain centered near the Four Corners region Saturday. It appears that modest (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly mid-level winds will be present across parts of southern AZ and vicinity. As thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, there may be enough low/mid-level flow to push this convection westward into the lower terrain of southern/central AZ. Very steep low/mid-level lapse rates with a well-mixed boundary layer and ample DCAPE should support some threat for severe winds if this occurs. With a better signal of this potential in recent high-resolution guidance, have added a Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds. ..Gleason.. 07/21/2023 Read more

WW 535 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 211725Z - 212300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northeast Arkansas will track eastward this afternoon across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Memphis TN to 55 miles northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 534... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more