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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across much of the CONUS tomorrow. One exception will be over the Four Corners where sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection will be possible during the afternoon into the evening. An expansive upper trough with a series of multiple shortwave impulses over the West should evolve into a closed low by Friday afternoon, centered on the UT/ID/WY border vicinity. Mid-level DCVA will be most pronounced to its south, impinging on the Four Corners area during peak diurnal heating. Despite surface dew points generally holding in the 20s, the favorable lift and steep lapse rates through 500 mb should support scant surface-based buoyancy. Scattered low-topped convection is expected with sporadic lightning flashes possible in the relatively deepest cores. The bulk of isolated thunderstorm potential should hold in the Four Corners vicinity, but low probabilities may linger beyond sunset towards north-central NM. ..Grams.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more