Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning, with scattered low-topped convection across the Four Corners vicinity, appears to have generally diminished in response to boundary-layer stabilization with the loss of daytime heating. Even as mid-level cooling continues, associated with a large-scale trough and embedded low digging southeast of the Great Basin, probabilities for additional thunderstorm activity appear less than 10 percent through 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, thunderstorm probabilities also now appear less than 10 percent across inland areas of southern Florida and the Keys. However, guidance suggests that an isolated weak thunderstorm or two may still not be out of the question tonight offshore of southeastern Florida coastal areas, mainly east of the Palm Beach vicinity, perhaps aided by locally enhanced low-level convergence and weak mid-level cooling. ..Kerr.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning, with scattered low-topped convection across the Four Corners vicinity, appears to have generally diminished in response to boundary-layer stabilization with the loss of daytime heating. Even as mid-level cooling continues, associated with a large-scale trough and embedded low digging southeast of the Great Basin, probabilities for additional thunderstorm activity appear less than 10 percent through 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, thunderstorm probabilities also now appear less than 10 percent across inland areas of southern Florida and the Keys. However, guidance suggests that an isolated weak thunderstorm or two may still not be out of the question tonight offshore of southeastern Florida coastal areas, mainly east of the Palm Beach vicinity, perhaps aided by locally enhanced low-level convergence and weak mid-level cooling. ..Kerr.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning, with scattered low-topped convection across the Four Corners vicinity, appears to have generally diminished in response to boundary-layer stabilization with the loss of daytime heating. Even as mid-level cooling continues, associated with a large-scale trough and embedded low digging southeast of the Great Basin, probabilities for additional thunderstorm activity appear less than 10 percent through 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, thunderstorm probabilities also now appear less than 10 percent across inland areas of southern Florida and the Keys. However, guidance suggests that an isolated weak thunderstorm or two may still not be out of the question tonight offshore of southeastern Florida coastal areas, mainly east of the Palm Beach vicinity, perhaps aided by locally enhanced low-level convergence and weak mid-level cooling. ..Kerr.. 11/25/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 24 22:05:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 24 22:05:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more