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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the central US will drive strong flow aloft southward over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley while ridging develops over the eastern Pacific. High pressure over the northern Great Basin should support offshore flow over parts of southern CA through tonight and into early D2/Tuesday. ...Central Appalachians... Breezy easterly flow is expected over parts of western NC and eastern TN ahead of the surface low as it moves from OK into the mid MS Valley tonight. North of the stalled warm front, the low-level air mass remains relatively dry from the prior frontal passage. While RH values are not expected to reach critical levels, very strong low- and mid-level winds ahead of the surface low are expected to overspread areas of 90th percentile ERCs. Ongoing wildfire activity within the higher terrain could be impacted by strong east/southeast winds and mountain waves for several hours this afternoon into the evening. With this in mind, have opted to include a small elevated on the downwind side of the Smoky Mountains where strong winds could overlap with the driest fuels. Later tonight, widespread rain should develop and end the fire-weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the deep mid-level trough begins to move east. Aided by the low over OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ...Southern California... Strong flow aloft along the backside of the central US trough will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through tonight before winds begin to weaken into D2/Tuesday morning. However, marginally receptive fuels and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected from this afternoon across east Texas and parts of Louisiana, through tonight across the Delta region into portions of Mississippi and Alabama. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/20/2023 Read more