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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to continue amplifying as the upper low over the central US slides eastward. An attendant surface cyclone is projected to weaken as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley and into the eastern OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will overspread the eastern half of the US, limiting fire-weather concerns. To the west, eastern Pacific ridging will also intensify with strong high pressure developing within the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. Offshore flow will continue over parts of southern CA for the first half of the period, before weakening as the high pressure moves onto the Plains. Dry northerly winds are also expected over much of the central and southern High Plains. However, with limited fuels owing to cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0711 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0711 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0711 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 20 18:02:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...MUCH OF LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...East/Southeast TX...Much of LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 201756Z - 202000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Tornado Watch is expected this afternoon from east/southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, where the potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, exists. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central OK, with a cold front extending southward through central TX and then more southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A warm front also extends southeastward from this low to SHV, stretching more east-southeastward from there across central LA into southwest MS. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within the warm sector, supported by ample low-level moisture and warm-air advection within the warm conveyor. Several attempts at more sustained thunderstorm development have occurred farther west along the cold front, but none have been successful thus far. A somewhat complex convective scenario is expected to play out from east/southeast TX into central LA this afternoon. Favorable low-level moisture will continue to advect northward ahead of the approaching cold front (and parent upper-level trough), contributing to air mass destabilization. Southerly/southwesterly low-level flow will increase this afternoon as well, strengthening low-level shear within an environment that already has favorable deep-layer shear. The result will be an environment supportive of supercells whenever updrafts mature. This maturation may initially be stunted by limited buoyancy, but continued low-level moisture advection should allow for this limitation to be overcome by the late afternoon. A corridor of moderate buoyancy is expected from east-central TX into central LA. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are anticipated. Shear profiles suggest the potential for a strong tornado exists, particularly near the warm front, if a more discrete mode can be maintained. Given this potential, a Tornado Watch will be needed across portions of the area this afternoon. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30949625 31959576 32609508 32889401 32939325 32789224 32379180 31789184 30949224 30359283 30149348 30119441 30299549 30949625 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ...Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 Read more