Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Parts of the Carolinas... Substantial model spread noted in the D3/Tuesday period continues into D4/Wednesday across the Carolinas. While most guidance suggests the cold front will be near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning, the GFS and some GEFS members depict a notably stronger mid/upper-level cyclone approaching the region Wednesday morning. Should this occur, a surface wave may develop and result in a later frontal passage, with some threat for organized convection potentially developing near the coast. Predictability is much too low to include probabilities for this scenario at this time. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Parts of the Gulf Coast/Florida... Some extended-range guidance (most notably the deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF) depicts frontal wave development across the Gulf of Mexico late this week, as a cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone finally ejects east-northeastward. This scenario could pose some severe-thunderstorm potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida into next weekend, but predictability is very low at this forecast range, and substantial destabilization in the wake of the earlier frontal passage across the region still appears rather unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more