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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show a progressive, short-wave length flow regime through the extended period. As a result, models are not showing an indication for appreciable northward moisture return into the southern U.S. Given the relative lack of moisture and accompanying potential for instability to develop, the risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity will probably remain below the climatological mean for late winter/February. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A split flow pattern over North America will feature an amplifying mid-level trough digging southeast across the Midwest/Great Lakes during the period. A weak mid-level perturbation located near TX/OK/KS will weaken as it quickly moves east in confluent flow across the Ozarks during the day in advance of the amplifying trough to the north. In the low levels, a weak surface low will migrate east across the Mid South as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex. Pockets of scant buoyancy are forecast to develop across Arklatex and portions of the lower MS Valley. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible mainly during the day before this activity weakens by early evening. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity/preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A split flow pattern over North America will feature an amplifying mid-level trough digging southeast across the Midwest/Great Lakes during the period. A weak mid-level perturbation located near TX/OK/KS will weaken as it quickly moves east in confluent flow across the Ozarks during the day in advance of the amplifying trough to the north. In the low levels, a weak surface low will migrate east across the Mid South as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex. Pockets of scant buoyancy are forecast to develop across Arklatex and portions of the lower MS Valley. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible mainly during the day before this activity weakens by early evening. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity/preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A split flow pattern over North America will feature an amplifying mid-level trough digging southeast across the Midwest/Great Lakes during the period. A weak mid-level perturbation located near TX/OK/KS will weaken as it quickly moves east in confluent flow across the Ozarks during the day in advance of the amplifying trough to the north. In the low levels, a weak surface low will migrate east across the Mid South as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex. Pockets of scant buoyancy are forecast to develop across Arklatex and portions of the lower MS Valley. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible mainly during the day before this activity weakens by early evening. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity/preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more