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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

MD 0143 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin into parts of southwestern and south central lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 150800Z - 151200Z SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow appears likely to overspread the remainder of southern Wisconsin into southern lower Michigan through 6-8 AM EST, possibly including a brief burst of very heavy snow rates around or in excess of 2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Rapidly cooling cloud tops in a small cluster overspreading southern Wisconsin appears aided by forcing for ascent beneath a focused area of intensifying upper divergence, between coupled upper jets propagating into and across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. This appears to coincide with a short-lived period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which is forecast to shift across the remainder of southern Wisconsin into portions of southern lower Michigan through 11-13Z. Although surface temperatures generally remain above freezing along this corridor, the saturating column above is sub-freezing. Forecast soundings indicate that temperatures around -15 C are focused near the 600 mb level, where the environment is most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. In response to a period of strengthening lift within this layer, snow rates appear to be increasing. Based on latest model output, it appears that this may include a couple hour period of hourly rates in excess of 1 inch, in the presence of precipitable water increasing to around .5 inches. Latest Rapid Refresh output suggest that a brief burst of 2+ inch per hour rates might not be out of the question. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...MKX... LAT...LON 43548874 43578479 43018361 42278478 42488595 42618785 42738894 43548874 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more