Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...much of Arkansas and from the ArkLaTex into northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161826Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated strong storms capable of producing hail are expected to form over parts of Arkansas this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push into northeast TX and into northern and western AR, while warming and destabilization take place to the east. Visible satellite shows areas of heating over AR with only thin high clouds extending southwestward into TX. Very cold temperatures exist aloft, and as such, continued heating combined with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be more than sufficient to result in an uncapped air mass. Forecast soundings show the potential for low-topped but robust thunderstorms, while veering low-level flow roughly parallel to the front favors cells capable of hail. Some boundary layer mixing of the dewpoints may occur, but heating is expected to compensate, with storms forming near the cold front later this afternoon. ..Jewell/Hart.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35169093 34819086 34339100 33789162 33309280 33009375 32909419 33159462 33769473 34969370 35579306 35679217 35509140 35169093 Read more

MD 0145 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Illinois into central Indiana and western Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161726Z - 162130Z SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow are possible through early afternoon, with up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates and reduced visibility possible. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb jet streak continues to overspread the OH Valley, which is encouraging 850-700 mb warm-air and moisture advection. The low-level warm-air advection trends are increasing the magnitudes of 700 mb frontogenesis, with deep-layer ascent strengthening within deepening/moistening dendritic growth zone. At least a few reports of heavy snow have been received within the past few hours and this trend is expected to continue through the afternoon. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates will remain possible, along with brief periods of reduced visibility associated with an east-to-west oriented snowband. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39968985 40468929 40688653 40768462 40498368 39998348 39798409 39518586 39478744 39518845 39628932 39968985 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more