Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mid/upper-level mean troughing will persist over eastern North America and the northeastern Pacific, with ridging across western portions of the CONUS and Canada. A vast cyclonic gyre anchors the Pacific mean trough. A notable shortwave perturbation -- evident in the broader cyclone's southeastern quadrant west of CA, near 135W -- will eject northeastward today, reaching the northwestern CA coastline around 06Z. Associated midlevel DCVA and steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates, will support weak buoyancy atop a cool, moist marine layer. Associated potential for widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunder will approach the coast during mid/late afternoon and persist until the trough passes late this evening. East of the ridge, another shortwave trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery across portions of CO/UT. This feature will shift southeastward to the Mid-South, Arklatex and North TX by the end of the period, causing height falls over the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions. In response to these developments, a southern-stream trough now over west-central/north-central MX will move eastward across the western/northern parts of the MX Gulf Coast to the western Gulf. Several lesser vorticity lobes/shortwaves will travel downstream to FL, perhaps cooling initially unfavorably warm midlevel temperatures enough to contribute to isolated thunder potential within an extensive precip plume. The convection should be mainly along and north of a slow-moving cold front now located over central FL. Weak lows may traverse the front in association with the perturbations aloft, but the most prominent surface low preceding the main Mexican trough should remain west of the peninsula through the period. The front should move slowly southward, reaching south FL by 12Z tomorrow. Weak instability (especially in midlevels) and disorganized convective modes should preclude both a severe threat and more than isolated thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week. Read more