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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

The mayor of Madison and the Board of Aldermen issued a state of emergency for the city in January as the drought and beetles left thousands of dead pine trees across the city. Experts say that the trees will soon fall, creating a safety hazard, so the city needs to remove the trees soon. The cost of removal may be $800 to $1,500 per tree. City officials were hoping for some state and federal assistance to deal with this natural disaster. WLBT 3 (Jackson, Miss.), Feb 16, 2024

Record-setting heat and intense drought devastated the crawfish population on a Sour Lake farm. There were few crawfish to harvest, although they ought to get 200 to 300 sacks daily. Last year those crawfish sold for $4 per pound, whereas this year, they’re selling for $10 per pound. Of the roughly 500,000 acres of crawfish country in Texas and Louisiana, 170,000 acres will not yield any crawfish this year. KHOU 11 (Houston, Texas), Feb 16, 2024

MD 0148 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170040Z - 170445Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of 3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing. Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+ inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 39078529 40128346 40368289 40838105 40987996 40967914 40867850 40627792 40337768 40067754 39707765 39477780 38457893 38267929 38127958 38077995 38098052 38438436 38468482 38538512 38638531 38848542 39078529 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

MD 0147 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois into central and southern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...extreme northern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162104Z - 170100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue over the next several hours. At least 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are expected, accompanied by periods of reduced visibility. DISCUSSION...Heavy snow has been on the increase in terms of coverage and intensity over the last few hours as surface cold air advection along/just north of the OH River is overspread by continued warm-air/moisture advection aloft. Within a broader zonal band of snow, the heaviest rates (i.e. 1+ inch/hr) should occur near the 700 mb frontogenesis axis, where ascent within the dendritic growth zone should be greatest. The heavier snow, along with reduced visibility, should progress east-southeastward this afternoon into the evening hours (per 12Z HREF calibrated guidance). ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39958370 39658349 39108370 38688435 38348555 38148742 38088900 38238993 38459028 38699026 38759022 39048946 39558723 39898549 40048470 39998389 39958370 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 16 22:04:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0147 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois into central and southern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...extreme northern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162104Z - 170100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue over the next several hours. At least 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are expected, accompanied by periods of reduced visibility. DISCUSSION...Heavy snow has been on the increase in terms of coverage and intensity over the last few hours as surface cold air advection along/just north of the OH River is overspread by continued warm-air/moisture advection aloft. Within a broader zonal band of snow, the heaviest rates (i.e. 1+ inch/hr) should occur near the 700 mb frontogenesis axis, where ascent within the dendritic growth zone should be greatest. The heavier snow, along with reduced visibility, should progress east-southeastward this afternoon into the evening hours (per 12Z HREF calibrated guidance). ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39958370 39658349 39108370 38688435 38348555 38148742 38088900 38238993 38459028 38699026 38759022 39048946 39558723 39898549 40048470 39998389 39958370 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more