Aggregator | disasterassistance.gov

SPC Mar 16, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Severe Storms