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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170239Z - 170445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across parts of south Texas late this evening, some of which may produce hail and gusty winds. A watch may be issued. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Mexico in advance of a subtle shortwave trough apparent in water vapor satellite imagery. Across south Texas, some nocturnal surface stabilization has occurred. However, an ACARS profile from San Antonio and regional RAP profiles indicate the presence of a deep moist layer, which should continue to support convection even in the presence of a surface stable layer. Given diffuse low-level forcing for ascent, storms are expected to remain cellular, though some clustering is apparent in short-term model guidance. In addition, with deep CAPE profiles and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates along with long, straight hodographs (effective bulk shear values of 50-60 kts), large hail is expected to be the primary threat. Additionally, some gusty winds are possible with any clustering that occurs, though this is mitigated by the relatively moist profile. Short-term model guidance indicates storms will continue eastward across south Texas through the night before moving off the coast early in the morning. ..Supinie/Goss.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 27829998 29110093 29600014 29819895 29699805 29269725 28619694 27899703 27489763 26929876 26659932 27829998 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more