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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 ..WEINMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-015-019-021-025-029-039-041-051-055-071-089-091-123-127- 137-149-157-163-167-175-177-185-187-199-201-209-225-239-245-255- 259-265-271-283-285-287-291-297-311-313-321-323-325-339-373-385- 407-455-457-463-465-469-471-473-477-479-481-493-507-152040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHAMBERS COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE FORT BEND FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARDIN HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY POLK REAL SAN JACINTO Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 ..WEINMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-015-019-021-025-029-039-041-051-055-071-089-091-123-127- 137-149-157-163-167-175-177-185-187-199-201-209-225-239-245-255- 259-265-271-283-285-287-291-297-311-313-321-323-325-339-373-385- 407-455-457-463-465-469-471-473-477-479-481-493-507-152040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHAMBERS COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE FORT BEND FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARDIN HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY POLK REAL SAN JACINTO Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 ..WEINMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-015-019-021-025-029-039-041-051-055-071-089-091-123-127- 137-149-157-163-167-175-177-185-187-199-201-209-225-239-245-255- 259-265-271-283-285-287-291-297-311-313-321-323-325-339-373-385- 407-455-457-463-465-469-471-473-477-479-481-493-507-152040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHAMBERS COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE FORT BEND FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARDIN HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY POLK REAL SAN JACINTO Read more

MD 0259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151728Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing very large hail (2+ inch) and severe winds are expected across portions of south-central and southeast Texas this afternoon. A watch will likely be issued in the next couple hours for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate an east/west-oriented outflow-modified cold front gradually stalling across parts of south-central into southeast TX this afternoon. Given that much of this area is on the backside of a departing shortwave trough moving east-northeastward across east TX, overall coverage of storms is a bit uncertain. Nevertheless, as the frontal circulation intersects a gradually deepening moist layer amid pockets of diurnal heating, at least isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon -- possibly aided by weak low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface/cold pool. An additional focus for storm development will be over the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, where the front intersect the higher terrain amid upslope flow enhancements. The latest ACARS soundings from San Antonio TX sampled steep midlevel lapse rates (near 8 C/km) associated with an EML atop a gradually deepening moist layer extending through 1 km AGL. Continued diurnal heating of this moist layer should contribute to moderate/strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). In addition, a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow above veering low-level flow will yield 40-50 kt effective shear. This will support the development of initially semi-discrete supercell clusters, capable of producing very large hail (some greater than baseball-sized), along with locally severe winds. While a tornado or two cannot be entirely ruled out with these storms, low-level shear will not be particularly strong, and the development of strong cold pools could reduce the risk to an extent. With time, localized upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible, with an increasing wind risk and continued large hail threat with east-southeastward extent. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29110097 29450126 29890135 30100106 30140073 30049826 30169736 30359635 30449568 30439523 30329461 30039456 29589492 29139556 28829632 28699705 28639790 28609943 28720015 28860062 29110097 Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LFT TO 55 NW MSY TO 20 E PIB TO 25 NW GZH TO 10 E TOI TO 25 SSW CSG. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 109-129-152040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE PIKE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON LAC005-007-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109- Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE LFT TO 15 SSW MCB TO 25 NE MCB TO 35 W PIB TO 10 NE TOI. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 109-129-151940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE PIKE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-151940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON LAC005-007-033-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103- Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0054 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more