Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

Hard freezes and drought in Louisiana reduced honey production in 2023. KADN-TV (Lafayette, La.), March 28, 2024

Some Micronesian islands, including Elato, Satawal and Lamotrek, experienced taro and coconuts reportedly drying up, water scarcity, low water wells or low drinking water. The Guam Daily Post (Tamuning, Guam), March 29, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 28 23:49:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 28 23:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more