Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more