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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271753Z - 271900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and hail over the next hour. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms off the coast of the Florida peninsula has shown an increase intensity as it moves inland. Surface objective analysis would suggest that MLCIN is still in place inland, though deep layer shear remains strong (45-50 kts). More robust portions of this line may produce localized large hail and damaging winds before it begins to weaken further inland. Overall this threat should remain brief and as such a watch is not likely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28908327 29238282 29368237 29398201 29358173 29188138 28988136 28788150 28648161 28558175 28338226 28188267 28118291 28148324 28278330 28448331 28908327 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more