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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some possibly severe, will be possible over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a very deep upper low will move into the Great Basin, with a large area of strong cyclonic flow aloft over much of the western CONUS. Preceding this system will be a lead southern-stream wave, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains after 00Z. To the north, a shortwave trough will gradually lift across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak surface high building south across the Plains behind a cold front. This front will lie roughly from IL into northern TX by 00Z, with southern portions of the boundary stalling. A moist and unstable air mass will remain to the south, primarily over TX, but low-level moisture will also spread into eastern NM. While ongoing storms are likely along the front early in the day, heating and destabilization ahead of it will favor diurnal strong to possibly severe storms, producing localized hail or strong gusts. Even if the storms become elevated, steep lapse rates aloft will still favor vigorous updrafts. With time, storms could become quite numerous with an easterly low-level jet developing, aiding theta-e advection toward the frontal zone. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some possibly severe, will be possible over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a very deep upper low will move into the Great Basin, with a large area of strong cyclonic flow aloft over much of the western CONUS. Preceding this system will be a lead southern-stream wave, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains after 00Z. To the north, a shortwave trough will gradually lift across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak surface high building south across the Plains behind a cold front. This front will lie roughly from IL into northern TX by 00Z, with southern portions of the boundary stalling. A moist and unstable air mass will remain to the south, primarily over TX, but low-level moisture will also spread into eastern NM. While ongoing storms are likely along the front early in the day, heating and destabilization ahead of it will favor diurnal strong to possibly severe storms, producing localized hail or strong gusts. Even if the storms become elevated, steep lapse rates aloft will still favor vigorous updrafts. With time, storms could become quite numerous with an easterly low-level jet developing, aiding theta-e advection toward the frontal zone. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AUS TO 25 S SEP TO 15 W MWL TO 45 SE SPS TO 15 N CHK. ..LEITMAN..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-051-067-085-087-099-020740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY TXC035-099-143-193-221-237-281-337-363-367-425-497-020740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ERATH HAMILTON HOOD JACK LAMPASAS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AUS TO 25 S SEP TO 15 W MWL TO 45 SE SPS TO 15 N CHK. ..LEITMAN..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-051-067-085-087-099-020740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY TXC035-099-143-193-221-237-281-337-363-367-425-497-020740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ERATH HAMILTON HOOD JACK LAMPASAS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AUS TO 25 S SEP TO 15 W MWL TO 45 SE SPS TO 15 N CHK. ..LEITMAN..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-051-067-085-087-099-020740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY TXC035-099-143-193-221-237-281-337-363-367-425-497-020740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ERATH HAMILTON HOOD JACK LAMPASAS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AUS TO 25 S SEP TO 15 W MWL TO 45 SE SPS TO 15 N CHK. ..LEITMAN..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-051-067-085-087-099-020740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY TXC035-099-143-193-221-237-281-337-363-367-425-497-020740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ERATH HAMILTON HOOD JACK LAMPASAS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 175 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 020340Z - 020900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma West-central and western North Texas * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1040 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue eastward through the overnight with bouts of large hail and locally damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Chickasha OK to 75 miles south of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 171...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX. Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and shear will be weak. ...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late... As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40 kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to time with the stronger updrafts. ...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening... Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak heating. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more