Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

MD 0627 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwestern Missouri...Northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182... Valid 040602Z - 040800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to continue across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley tonight. A watch extension in area has been made for Cowley and Butler Counties in Kansas. However, the line is expected to become increasingly marginal over time, and new weather watch issuance is not expected to the east of WW 182. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Hastings shows a large-scale bowing line segment across southeast Nebraska and north-central Kansas. This line of storms is located near a warm front, which extends east-southeastward into northern Missouri. From near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in upper 50s and lower 60s F, with MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over central Kansas. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave and the instability will provide support for the ongoing linear MCS for a few more hours. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the MCS. However, as MLCIN strengthens across the central Plains and instability decreases, the wind-damage threat is expected to become more marginal with time. ..Broyles.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39459466 39969433 40309425 40469436 40599469 40689618 40659680 40279733 39659798 39389816 39129808 39039744 39019585 39199505 39459466 Read more

MD 0626 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into the northwestern quarter of Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182... Valid 040441Z - 040615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging wind gusts continues across portions of south-central Kansas and adjacent northwestern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bands/clusters of organized storms moving eastward across the southern half of WW 182. Ample instability exists ahead of the convection, given the degree of organization, to support continuation of the storms over the next couple of hours -- particularly given ascent associated with warm advection as a result of the observed 50 kt low-level jet. While mid-level flow remains rather weak across the area, storms continue to advance steadily eastward in tandem with rather well-defined outflow, and will be accompanied by at least local risk for wind gusts near or slightly exceeding severe levels. ..Goss.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35529989 36129911 36569921 36749910 36969929 37449863 37669861 37459823 36679773 35879790 35429802 35529989 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more