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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through early evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Monday will feature a positively tilted mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a trough in the west. A shortwave trough currently across northeast Kansas early this morning will progress through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by tonight. In addition, a closed upper low across the eastern Pacific will phase with the upper-level trough across the western CONUS and accelerate toward the Plains by the end of the period. A lee cyclone will deepen across the southern High Plains through the period as mid-level troughing amplifies across the western CONUS and mid-level flow strengthens across the Southwest. To the north of this surface low, a stationary front will become better defined from near the Palmer Divide to northwest Iowa with a dryline extending southward from this front. ...Front Range into the central Plains and Upper Midwest... A significant void in low-level moisture is present across western Kansas and eastern Colorado early this morning in the wake of the MCS. By late morning, moisture should start to increase across Kansas in response to low-level moisture advection. This moisture advection will intensify during the afternoon as the primary lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado and low-level flow strengthens. By late afternoon, low-level upslope flow will develop across northeast Colorado with dewpoints into the 50s. Within this region of upslope flow, supercells are expected to develop by late afternoon to early evening. Long hodographs will support the threat for large to very large hail initially. Any storms which are surface based, along or south of the frontal boundary, will pose some tornado threat, particularly after 00Z as the low-level hodograph enlarges and low-level moisture increases. Multiple rounds of supercells are possible within the Enhanced risk, as the initial supercells progress east, before additional supercells likely develop in a similar region as the primary trough ejects into the Plains. Eventually, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more bowing MCSs with an increasing severe-wind threat into south-central Nebraska. Some CAMs suggest the greater coverage severe-wind threat may persist into eastern Nebraska during the overnight period. Strong low-level moisture advection will maintain moderate to strong instability south of the frontal zone during the overnight period, and a strengthening low-level jet will also aid in MCS maintenance and intensity. However, the stable boundary layer during the overnight period casts doubt on how widespread the severe-wind threat will be after midnight. Therefore, the Enhanced risk is focused during the initial stages of supercell-to-bow transition where low-level thermodynamics will be more favorable during the evening hours. ...Northern Illinois vicinity into Wisconsin and Michigan... A compact mid-level shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas this morning will traverse the Midwest with ascent overspreading northern Illinois by mid-afternoon. Once the cap erodes, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Illinois and move into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective shear (in a confined region near the upper shortwave trough). This combination of instability, shear, and ascent with the passing wave should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to weaken as they move over the colder water of Lake Michigan and the boundary layer cools near sunset. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Florida during the afternoon and evening hours amid 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots) and lapse rates will be quite meager. Therefore, multicells with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/20/2024 Read more

WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 266 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-041-047-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-143-145- 147-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD KAY MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AVK TO 30 WNW AVK TO 20 E ICT. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-077-191-200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER HARPER SUMNER OKC003-053-093-151-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT MAJOR WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 265 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 200250Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 950 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely persist through the late evening and early overnight hours as a low-level jet remains situated over the Watch area. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Alva OK to 25 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ICT TO 25 SSW EMP TO 50 SSE OJC TO CDJ TO 35 WNW LWD. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-029-039-053-117-121-159-173-175-181-185-200640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS CASS CLARKE DECATUR LUCAS MADISON RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-107-125-133-205-207- 200640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE LINN MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC011-013-033-079-081-083-101-117-129-217-227-200640- Read more