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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 Read more