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WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW SJT TO 35 NE SJT TO 20 N ABI. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-049-059-083-085-093-095-099-105-113-119-121-133- 139-143-145-147-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-235-251-257-277- 281-293-307-309-327-333-349-367-379-397-399-411-413-425-435-439- 451-467-222340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT IRION JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MENARD MILLS NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SOMERVELL SUTTON TARRANT TOM GREEN VAN ZANDT Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-077-097-151-207-237-253-337-353-363-417-429-441-447-497- 503-222340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE FISHER HASKELL JACK JONES MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0290 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 290 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-073-081-091-099-103-139-222340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-222340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-419-423-449- 459-499-222340- TX Read more

MD 0898 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288... Valid 222039Z - 222245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will remain possible into the early evening. DISCUSSION...The most organized convection has been within central New York into north-central Pennsylvania, more closely associated with the MCV. Occasional wind damage has been reported with some of this activity. Farther south into the Blue Ridge, storms developed with a moist/unstable airmass, but have not appeared overly organized given around 25 kts of effective shear (observed on 18Z IAD sounding and supported by current mesoanalysis). Should clustering occur east of the Blue Ridge, some locally greater risk for wind damage would be possible. The overall hail threat should remain rather low given weak upper-level winds, but small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. Drier air to the east has led to weaker buoyancy. Storms are expected to gradually weaken as they move east into the early evening. ..Wendt.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41287842 43377700 43897606 43717551 43007504 40747588 39327700 38577749 38417780 38647822 39587822 41287842 Read more

MD 0897 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 286...287... FOR SOUTHWEST TX...CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...287... Valid 222038Z - 222215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286, 287 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail from 2-3" remains the primary risk from southwest Texas across central Texas into northeast Texas. A few tornadoes are possible as well, particularly across southwest Texas. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues over Coleman County Texas. This storm is the most substantial development within the very unstable and strongly sheared airmass extending from southwest TX across central TX into northeast TX. Additional development near the surface low in the Permian Basin has recently intensified, acquiring supercellular characteristics as it moved into Sterling County TX. This storm may begin to interact with outflow from the Coleman County storm, resulting in some potential for additional strengthening. Vertical vorticity along this boundary could aid in tornadogenesis. Robust updrafts capable of very large hail up to 2-3" remain possible. The large anvil cast by the Coleman County storm could have some influence on where this additional initiation occurs, perhaps shifting the more favorable initiation zone to the edges of the anvil where differential heating is more likely. Large hail remains possible with left splits over northwest TX, with at least some potential for in-situ development along the cold front as well. ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32190117 33069910 33349803 33739637 32959514 31349718 30910140 32190117 Read more

MD 0896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Southern Indiana into north-central Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222018Z - 222215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms that develop along the cold front. Timing of development and storm coverage are not certain. A watch is possible this afternoon as convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Heating behind earlier convection associated with an MCV has allowed the airmass ahead of the cold front to destabilize. Cumulus along the front have become more vertically developed, particularly in southeastern Indiana. Winds are quite veered in the vicinity of the front and convergence is weak. Some modest mid-level ascent from the Upper Midwest shortwave trough may be needed to initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon. Other than timing, storm coverage is somewhat uncertain as well. Storms that do develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. A watch is possible this afternoon, but timing and spatial extent are not clear. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38768456 38608497 38208666 38478660 39258571 41218381 41558327 41388189 40208200 39348314 38898394 38768456 Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MKL TO 45 WSW BNA TO 5 E BNA TO 25 ESE BWG. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-099-103-111-117- 119-127-133-137-141-149-159-169-175-177-181-185-187-189- 222340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY JACKSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MAURY MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO 15 S DEQ TO 20 NW RUE TO 20 ENE FLP. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-075-079-081-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121- 125-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL TXC037-222240- TX Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO 15 S DEQ TO 20 NW RUE TO 20 ENE FLP. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-075-079-081-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121- 125-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL TXC037-222240- TX Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO 15 S DEQ TO 20 NW RUE TO 20 ENE FLP. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-075-079-081-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121- 125-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL TXC037-222240- TX Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO 15 S DEQ TO 20 NW RUE TO 20 ENE FLP. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-075-079-081-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121- 125-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL TXC037-222240- TX Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO 15 S DEQ TO 20 NW RUE TO 20 ENE FLP. ..BROYLES..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-075-079-081-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121- 125-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL TXC037-222240- TX Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-222240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-222240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NYC007-015-017-023-045-049-053-065-107-109-222240- Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-077-097-151-207-237-253-337-353-363-417-429-441-447-497- 503-222240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE FISHER HASKELL JACK JONES MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SJT TO 25 NNW SJT TO 50 W ABI. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-049-059-081-083-085-093-095-099-105-113-119-121- 133-139-143-145-147-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-235-251-257- 277-281-293-307-309-327-333-349-367-379-397-399-411-413-425-435- 439-451-467-222240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT IRION JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MENARD MILLS NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SOMERVELL SUTTON TARRANT TOM GREEN VAN ZANDT Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more