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WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E EKN TO 10 W HGR TO 15 N AOO TO 40 E BFD TO 10 NNE ELM TO 25 NNW ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-222240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-222240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PRX TO 25 SW FYV. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-033-039-045-047-051-053-057-059-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-145-147- 149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0894 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...MUCH OF ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast Oklahoma...Far Northeast Texas...Much of Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284... Valid 221903Z - 222030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts remain possible from far southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas across much of Arkansas. Large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The earlier convection across northwestern AR weakened as it moved into central portions of the state, with limited thunderstorm activity over the past hour or so. Farther southwest, an elevated thunderstorm has undergone notable intensification/organization as it moves across southeast OK, maintaining a robust updraft over much of the last hour. Strong buoyancy and vertical shear exist within the airmass downstream of this cell, suggesting the severe threat will likely persist with this supercell as it moves from Pushmataha County eastward into southern Le Flore and northern McCurtain Counties. Additionally, thunderstorm development continues to progress northeastward into the region from north-central TX. The surface pattern is convoluted by the ongoing precipitation, but this activity appears to be mostly north of the preceding storm outflow but still south of the primary push of cold air. As such, the threat for surface-based storms still exists in this area (far southeast OK/southwest AR) for the next few hours, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34159626 34799508 35259277 35009136 33649320 33499561 34159626 Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC005-013-021-031-043-510-222140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CARROLL FREDERICK MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-037-045-049-051-053-055-065-067-069- 075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-222140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more