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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

A countywide burn ban took effect in Polk County on Tuesday, May 28 due to ongoing dry, hot weather. More than half of Polk County was averaging higher than 500 on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Lakeland Ledger (Lakeland, Fla.), May 23, 2024