Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251111
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more