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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

MD 0951 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...parts of west-central into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251841Z - 252015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are expected to form over the next 1-2 hours along the dryline over west-central into parts of northwest TX. Very large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an extremely moist air mass with 70s F dewpoints extending west toward the Snyder/Sweetwater area, along a developing dryline. Strong heating will aid further destabilization and CIN removal, as low-level convergence gradually increase near the dryline. Visible imagery already shows towers forming in this area, suggesting at least isolated supercells will soon form. Extreme instability as well as impressive mid to high level winds will strongly favor very large and damaging hail. Although the primary tornado risk is forecast north of this area later today, a couple tornadoes appear likely with the southern supercells given favorable storm mode, impressive updrafts, and gradually increasingly low-level SRH through early evening. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31080128 31790105 32460094 33610079 33770040 33779985 33729938 33549907 33339884 33079877 32329888 31359926 30589978 30450069 30770109 31080128 Read more

MD 0952 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0952 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Alabama into central and southern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306... Valid 251850Z - 252015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail may also occur with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters have percolated in intensity across southeast AL into central and southern GA over the past few hours. The ambient environment remains unstable ahead of the ongoing storms, as peak diurnal heating is underway. Damaging gusts remain a possibility wherever thunderstorm cold-pool merging can occur. Some hail may also be found in some of the deepest, strongest storm cores. Storms should continue with at least an isolated severe threat until convective overturning has diminished buoyancy over most of the area. ..Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31988608 32068483 32718367 33038244 32958194 32428200 31388234 30848295 30618401 30598515 30838594 31198618 31988608 Read more

MD 0950 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0950 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Georgia into South Carolina and extreme southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251803Z - 252000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and a couple instances of hail may accompany the stronger pulse storms through the afternoon. Given the expected sparse severe coverage, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...To the east of the more organized thunderstorms over GA, a moist airmass continues to destabilize over SC into extreme southern NC with prolonged diurnal heating. Surface temperatures are approaching 90 F in spots, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F contributing to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Tropospheric flow fields (and thus deep-layer shear) are weak, so the overall severe threat should be sparse with pulse-cellular storms today, and a WW issuance not expected. Nonetheless, the available buoyancy will promote wet downbursts with isolated damaging gust potential and perhaps some hail. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 31838078 32668171 33568235 34148208 34638118 34927969 34747871 34397805 34117791 33857831 33317905 32957942 32398027 31988060 31838078 Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AUO TO 40 SSW CSG TO 45 S CSG TO 30 NNW ABY TO 40 N ABY TO 20 SW MCN TO 25 ENE MCN. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC059-063-131-133-252040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-037-061-069-071-075-081-087-091-093- 095-099-107-131-153-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-185-193-201-205- 209-225-235-239-243-253-261-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-289-303- 309-315-319-321-252040- Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AUO TO 40 SSW CSG TO 45 S CSG TO 30 NNW ABY TO 40 N ABY TO 20 SW MCN TO 25 ENE MCN. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC059-063-131-133-252040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-037-061-069-071-075-081-087-091-093- 095-099-107-131-153-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-185-193-201-205- 209-225-235-239-243-253-261-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-289-303- 309-315-319-321-252040- Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0307 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0307 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-045-061-067-069-109-113-251940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE RUSSELL FLC059-063-131-133-251940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-021-023-027-037-053-061-069-071-075-079-081- 087-091-093-095-099-107-131-153-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-185- 193-197-201-205-209-215-225-235-239-243-249-253-259-261-269-271- 273-275-277-279-283-287-289-303-307-309-315-319-321-251940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251539Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and some hail may accompany the strongest storms. The severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity ahead of a surface trough over eastern OH, with agitated CU becoming apparent ahead of the storms. Strong diurnal heating and modest warm-air/moisture advection amid modest lapse rates is boosting MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg via tall, thin vertical profiles (per latest RAP forecast soundings). These forecast soundings also depict small low-level hodographs, but with mid-level elongation. As such, stronger multicell clusters and line segments that can become established may contain hail (with a couple bouts of severe hail possible). Damaging gusts may also occur with the stronger storm cores. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40498164 41748061 42667893 42657854 42137822 41297814 40597828 40077885 39797939 39718011 39748061 39918109 40498164 Read more