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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Read more

MD 0972 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 315... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Kentucky into northern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 315... Valid 261517Z - 261645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315. A bow echo will continue to progress eastward with a damaging wind threat, and a few more QLCS tornadoes remain possible. DISCUSSION...A well organized bow echo MCS, with a history of severe wind gusts, wind damage, and occasional QLCS tornadoes, continues to rapidly track eastward across portions of the TN Valley. At the moment, the bow appears slightly less robust compared to earlier stages, perhaps due to gradually waning instability with eastward extent. Nonetheless, the Kentucky mesonet continues to show widespread 45-55 mph wind gusts occurring with the bow, with regional radars also depicting occasional, brief QLCS circulations developing. With adequate vertical wind shear, over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and weakening MLCINH (given diurnal heating) preceding the bow, damaging gusts (perhaps exceeding severe limits at times) should continue across much of the rest of KY and northern TN. A couple of additional QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37798616 37878467 37608401 36938351 36378365 36098446 36168560 36338639 37798616 Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW OWB TO 35 ENE BWG TO 20 SE SDF. ..SQUITIERI..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-029-045-047-049-051-053-057-065-067- 079-087-109-111-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171- 173-179-189-197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235- 239-261740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE BULLITT CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JEFFERSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW OWB TO 35 ENE BWG TO 20 SE SDF. ..SQUITIERI..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-029-045-047-049-051-053-057-065-067- 079-087-109-111-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171- 173-179-189-197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235- 239-261740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE BULLITT CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JEFFERSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 26 14:53:08 UTC 2024.

MD 0971 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 314... FOR MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0971 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley into central Kentucky/Middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 314... Valid 261250Z - 261445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 314 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including a couple of tornadoes along with damaging wind gusts and hail -- continues across Tornado Watch 314. Risk will eventually spread east of this watch, likely warranting downstream WW issuance into central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, and potentially southern Indiana. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that convection has evolved into a bowing MCS across southeastern Missouri, and now moving across the Mississippi Valley, with embedded small-scale circulations embedded therein. As such, risk for a couple of tornadoes continues, along with more widespread potential for damaging winds/hail. Downstream from the ongoing convection, ample instability appears to extend eastward as far as central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Given the well-organized nature of this MCS -- including the MCV/mesolow apparent in southeastern Missouri -- expect that storms will remain organized as they shift eastward, accompanied by continued severe risk over the next few hours at least. While the watch currently runs through 26/15Z, risk likely continuing beyond this time/downstream from the eastern edge of the watch will likely require new WW issuance in the 14Z to 1430Z time frame. ..Goss.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35968991 36728934 37418966 37688948 38078722 38178558 36268514 35518585 35718813 35968991 Read more