Aggregator

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO 5 E SJT TO 30 WSW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-095-105-413-451-261040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CONCHO CROCKETT SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO 5 E SJT TO 30 WSW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-095-105-413-451-261040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CONCHO CROCKETT SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO 5 E SJT TO 30 WSW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-095-105-413-451-261040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CONCHO CROCKETT SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO 5 E SJT TO 30 WSW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-095-105-413-451-261040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CONCHO CROCKETT SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 313 SEVERE TSTM TX 260600Z - 261200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central Texas * Effective this Sunday morning from 100 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed along a dryline over the eastern Permian Basin area, with additional towers evident to the south in satellite imagery. The environment supports significant (2+ inch) damaging hail with any storms that can persist, as convection shifts eastward toward the Concho Valley region. Though capping strengthens eastward from the dryline, isolated severe gusts also may occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of San Angelo TX to 55 miles north northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 309...WW 310...WW 311...WW 312... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 0969 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0969 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313... Valid 260753Z - 261000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for large hail, and a damaging gust or two, continues across the Concho Valley vicinity of central Texas. DISCUSSION...A band of strong/locally severe storms continues moving across west-central and central Texas at this time, within an rather narrow corridor of maximized CAPE extending from roughly SPS to DRT. While severe risk should continue with this convection over the next 1 to 2 hours, it appears that risk gradually decreases with eastward extent, east of the zone of greater instability. CAM output generally confirms a weakening of the convection with time as it shifts eastward. As such, the leading edge of the stronger convection -- now moving into Coleman County -- may begin to diminish in the next 1 to 2 hours as storms cross the Brown County vicinity and reach Comanche/Mills/Hamilton Counties. Meanwhile, severe potential should continue locally across the remaining portions of WW 313. ..Goss.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31130184 32119961 32409921 32469837 31159854 30820053 31130184 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Read more