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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Lee surface troughing will sharpen ahead of this shortwave, with cyclogenesis anticipated across the western Dakotas Sunday morning. This low is then forecast to progress northeastward across ND and into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Southern extent of this front will likely stall in the NE/KS border vicinity, with secondary cyclogenesis over eastern CO and associated strong southerly low-level flow limiting its southward progress. Moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints in the Dakotas, with mid 60s across NE and upper 60s across KS. Cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will advect into the region in tandem with the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and diurnal heating will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along this front during the afternoon, likely beginning across western ND before spreading southward. Given the linear forcing along the cold front, quick upscale growth appears likely, although there could be a minimum in thunderstorm coverage across SD, resulting two distinct convective lines. The northern line is expected to move quickly across ND and northern SD and into MN. Large hail is possible early while development is more cellular, with damaging gusts more likely thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly flow will likely precede this line, supporting looping low-level hodographs and at least some limited potential for a tornado or two within the line. Greater buoyancy is anticipated with the southern line, as well as higher storm bases, contributing to the potential for stronger outflow and an increased potential for a forward-propagating convective line. Some gusts over 65 kt appear possible as the line progresses quickly eastward across NE. Thunderstorm intensity should gradually diminish with eastern extent given less low-level moisture and nocturnal stabilization. ...KS into Southwest TX and Western/Central OK... A convective line may be ongoing across western/central OK early Sunday morning, but predictability of the intensity and location of the line is low, owing to the mesoscale processes that will dominant its development. There is some chance the line continues southeastward into TX, with potential to reintensify as it encounters the moist and destabilizing airmass. However, limited predictability precludes delineating any probabilities across central/east TX. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, limiting overall coverage. Even so, strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely, particularly along the Gulf Coast where the sea breeze will focus development. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HOB TO 45 SE LBB TO 25 NNW CDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-075-101-115-125-151-165-173-191-227-263-269-317-329- 335-345-353-383-415-433-010640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CHILDRESS COTTLE DAWSON DICKENS FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HALL HOWARD KENT KING MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN REAGAN SCURRY STONEWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas... Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies, then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this evolution is once again expected later today as strong boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across the central High Plains. Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely threat. Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande Valley later in the evening. Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO. Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024 Read more