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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

327
ABPZ20 KNHC 061117
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly southeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday before then continuing eastward across the Northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave will likely be over the northeast IA/southeast MN vicinity early Saturday before progressing quickly eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday. As the surface low moves eastward, an associated cold front will push southward across the central Plains and Mid MS Valley and southeastward through much of the OH Valley. At least moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place ahead of this cold front from KS and OK into the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. Upslope flow into the central High Plains will likely support thunderstorm development across eastern CO (particularly southeast CO) during the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will likely support organized storm structures, with hail as the primary risk. Low-level flow veering with height is expected to be strong enough to support a tornado or two with any surface-based storms. Farther east into southeast KS/northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop by the late afternoon, fostered by dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front pushing south into the region as well as along a possible outflow boundary, remnant from Friday night/Saturday morning storms over the Lower MO Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will combine with the strong buoyancy to support robust updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. However, there is uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as the effects of the early morning showers and thunderstorms. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher than Marginal/5% probabilities with this outlook, although higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the forecast details are better resolved. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly southeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday before then continuing eastward across the Northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave will likely be over the northeast IA/southeast MN vicinity early Saturday before progressing quickly eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday. As the surface low moves eastward, an associated cold front will push southward across the central Plains and Mid MS Valley and southeastward through much of the OH Valley. At least moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place ahead of this cold front from KS and OK into the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. Upslope flow into the central High Plains will likely support thunderstorm development across eastern CO (particularly southeast CO) during the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will likely support organized storm structures, with hail as the primary risk. Low-level flow veering with height is expected to be strong enough to support a tornado or two with any surface-based storms. Farther east into southeast KS/northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop by the late afternoon, fostered by dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front pushing south into the region as well as along a possible outflow boundary, remnant from Friday night/Saturday morning storms over the Lower MO Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will combine with the strong buoyancy to support robust updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. However, there is uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as the effects of the early morning showers and thunderstorms. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher than Marginal/5% probabilities with this outlook, although higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the forecast details are better resolved. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly southeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday before then continuing eastward across the Northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave will likely be over the northeast IA/southeast MN vicinity early Saturday before progressing quickly eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday. As the surface low moves eastward, an associated cold front will push southward across the central Plains and Mid MS Valley and southeastward through much of the OH Valley. At least moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place ahead of this cold front from KS and OK into the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. Upslope flow into the central High Plains will likely support thunderstorm development across eastern CO (particularly southeast CO) during the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will likely support organized storm structures, with hail as the primary risk. Low-level flow veering with height is expected to be strong enough to support a tornado or two with any surface-based storms. Farther east into southeast KS/northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop by the late afternoon, fostered by dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front pushing south into the region as well as along a possible outflow boundary, remnant from Friday night/Saturday morning storms over the Lower MO Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will combine with the strong buoyancy to support robust updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. However, there is uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as the effects of the early morning showers and thunderstorms. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher than Marginal/5% probabilities with this outlook, although higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the forecast details are better resolved. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly southeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday before then continuing eastward across the Northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave will likely be over the northeast IA/southeast MN vicinity early Saturday before progressing quickly eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday. As the surface low moves eastward, an associated cold front will push southward across the central Plains and Mid MS Valley and southeastward through much of the OH Valley. At least moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place ahead of this cold front from KS and OK into the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. Upslope flow into the central High Plains will likely support thunderstorm development across eastern CO (particularly southeast CO) during the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will likely support organized storm structures, with hail as the primary risk. Low-level flow veering with height is expected to be strong enough to support a tornado or two with any surface-based storms. Farther east into southeast KS/northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop by the late afternoon, fostered by dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front pushing south into the region as well as along a possible outflow boundary, remnant from Friday night/Saturday morning storms over the Lower MO Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will combine with the strong buoyancy to support robust updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. However, there is uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as the effects of the early morning showers and thunderstorms. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher than Marginal/5% probabilities with this outlook, although higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the forecast details are better resolved. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more