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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061853Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT. This may include one or two developing supercell structures, with large hail and potentially damaging surface gusts the primary potential severe hazards. It is not certain when or if a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Beneath fairly prominent mid/upper ridging (which encompasses much of the Great Basin and Southwest into southern Great Plains), and lingering elevated mixed-layer air to the east of the southern Rockies, a remnant surface front is becoming the focus for strengthening differential surface heating across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma. Enhanced low-level convergence along this zone is maintaining sufficient moisture within a deepening mixed boundary layer to support CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. Perhaps aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection, deepening high-based convective development is ongoing. With additional insolation and the approach of convective temperatures, isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 21-23Z. West-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow is weak (around 10-15 kt), but veering of winds with height might be contributing to shear marginally sufficient to support short-lived supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail and wind. This activity will be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to propagate southward and southwestward. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36770102 36969965 36729776 35499903 35500061 35450108 35850173 36390162 36770102 Read more

MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND...FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland...far southern New Jersey...Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061745Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36867951 38787778 39647685 39677577 39507505 39037491 38247531 37327600 36807673 36647817 36867951 Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 6 17:48:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061658Z - 061830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across portions of the Hudson Valley into the Mid Atlantic. 40-55 mph wind gusts are the main threat with the stronger storms. 60+ mph gusts will likely be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Efficient diurnal heating is supporting the breach of convective temperatures (i.e. upper 70s/low 80s F) across portions of the Mid Atlantic, as a 500 mb vort max also approaches the Hudson Valley. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that convective initiation appears underway across portions of central NY into central and eastern PA. These storms are developing amid a moist and heated low-level airmass, but with poor (5.5-6 C/km) tropospheric lapse rates. As such, the rate of increasing thunderstorm intensity will be strongly dependent on continued surface heating and further steepening of boundary layer lapse rates through the afternoon. Multicellular to perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are expected, as modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow atop weaker low-level winds will support small low-level hodographs, but with some mid-level elongation. Strong wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range (capable of localized damage) are expected with the stronger storms. However, the overall severe threat appears to be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40217445 39987471 39857503 39797548 39857599 39957632 40147658 41137620 42897605 43997584 43977523 43477439 42447393 41237414 40217445 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more