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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... An increasingly prominent mid/upper-level trough will overspread the region with appreciable height falls as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along an advancing front. The influences of early day convection across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas are still expected be modulating factors and points of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of the upstream weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup should materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and to a lesser extent northwestward into western/central parts of South Dakota. Moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong deep-layer shear could support potentially intense supercells, especially across central Nebraska. This includes a risk for all severe hazards regionally. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward across Nebraska, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Iowa and possibly Minnesota Monday night. ...Southeast States... Locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur mainly Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front and a related surface wave. It still seems that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida and possibly southeast Alabama. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... An increasingly prominent mid/upper-level trough will overspread the region with appreciable height falls as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along an advancing front. The influences of early day convection across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas are still expected be modulating factors and points of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of the upstream weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup should materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and to a lesser extent northwestward into western/central parts of South Dakota. Moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong deep-layer shear could support potentially intense supercells, especially across central Nebraska. This includes a risk for all severe hazards regionally. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward across Nebraska, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Iowa and possibly Minnesota Monday night. ...Southeast States... Locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur mainly Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front and a related surface wave. It still seems that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida and possibly southeast Alabama. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... An increasingly prominent mid/upper-level trough will overspread the region with appreciable height falls as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along an advancing front. The influences of early day convection across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas are still expected be modulating factors and points of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of the upstream weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup should materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and to a lesser extent northwestward into western/central parts of South Dakota. Moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong deep-layer shear could support potentially intense supercells, especially across central Nebraska. This includes a risk for all severe hazards regionally. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward across Nebraska, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Iowa and possibly Minnesota Monday night. ...Southeast States... Locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur mainly Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front and a related surface wave. It still seems that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida and possibly southeast Alabama. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... An increasingly prominent mid/upper-level trough will overspread the region with appreciable height falls as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along an advancing front. The influences of early day convection across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas are still expected be modulating factors and points of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of the upstream weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup should materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and to a lesser extent northwestward into western/central parts of South Dakota. Moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong deep-layer shear could support potentially intense supercells, especially across central Nebraska. This includes a risk for all severe hazards regionally. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward across Nebraska, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Iowa and possibly Minnesota Monday night. ...Southeast States... Locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur mainly Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front and a related surface wave. It still seems that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida and possibly southeast Alabama. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... An increasingly prominent mid/upper-level trough will overspread the region with appreciable height falls as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along an advancing front. The influences of early day convection across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas are still expected be modulating factors and points of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of the upstream weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup should materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and to a lesser extent northwestward into western/central parts of South Dakota. Moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong deep-layer shear could support potentially intense supercells, especially across central Nebraska. This includes a risk for all severe hazards regionally. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward across Nebraska, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Iowa and possibly Minnesota Monday night. ...Southeast States... Locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur mainly Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front and a related surface wave. It still seems that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida and possibly southeast Alabama. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over Lower MI will progress eastward toward NY/PA by early tonight, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward across New England and southeastward across the central Appalachians. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough which will focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg as midlevel flow also increases with largely straight, but sufficiently long hodographs. The net result will be a favorable environment favorable for organized storm clusters/line segments, as well as a few supercells, capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado into the evening across southern and eastern New England. Deep-layer vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent into VA/NC, where the storm mode is expected be predominately multicell clusters. Still, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for occasional wind damage with downbursts. ...Northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over the northern Rockies by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across WY/MT. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined to KS southward along a baroclinic zone, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture across the central/northern High Plains on southeasterly low-level flow. The somewhat larger buoyancy and weaker convective inhibition are expected closer to the high terrain, with the more likely area for storm-cluster development over the mountains of southern MT in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward toward eastern MT with an accompanying threat for severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph. Large hail (mainly 1-1.75 inches in diameter) will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. Farther south, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible immediately east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Forecast wind profiles will be at least marginally favorable for supercells, though storm coverage is in question. The southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume may support an isolated wind-damage threat into western CO. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern Plains, low-midlevel moisture has been gradually increasing from southern NM into AZ. In the wake of scattered overnight storms, cloud breaks will allow surface heating/destabilization across southeast/south central AZ into the afternoon, which will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Convection will form over the high terrain of southeast AZ and spread westward through late afternoon/evening in response to east-southeasterly midlevel flow of 20-25 kt. A typical/deep mixed boundary layer coupled with the moderate buoyancy will support a few strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) with precipitation-loaded downdrafts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over Lower MI will progress eastward toward NY/PA by early tonight, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward across New England and southeastward across the central Appalachians. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough which will focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg as midlevel flow also increases with largely straight, but sufficiently long hodographs. The net result will be a favorable environment favorable for organized storm clusters/line segments, as well as a few supercells, capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado into the evening across southern and eastern New England. Deep-layer vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent into VA/NC, where the storm mode is expected be predominately multicell clusters. Still, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for occasional wind damage with downbursts. ...Northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over the northern Rockies by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across WY/MT. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined to KS southward along a baroclinic zone, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture across the central/northern High Plains on southeasterly low-level flow. The somewhat larger buoyancy and weaker convective inhibition are expected closer to the high terrain, with the more likely area for storm-cluster development over the mountains of southern MT in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward toward eastern MT with an accompanying threat for severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph. Large hail (mainly 1-1.75 inches in diameter) will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. Farther south, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible immediately east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Forecast wind profiles will be at least marginally favorable for supercells, though storm coverage is in question. The southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume may support an isolated wind-damage threat into western CO. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern Plains, low-midlevel moisture has been gradually increasing from southern NM into AZ. In the wake of scattered overnight storms, cloud breaks will allow surface heating/destabilization across southeast/south central AZ into the afternoon, which will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Convection will form over the high terrain of southeast AZ and spread westward through late afternoon/evening in response to east-southeasterly midlevel flow of 20-25 kt. A typical/deep mixed boundary layer coupled with the moderate buoyancy will support a few strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) with precipitation-loaded downdrafts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over Lower MI will progress eastward toward NY/PA by early tonight, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward across New England and southeastward across the central Appalachians. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough which will focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg as midlevel flow also increases with largely straight, but sufficiently long hodographs. The net result will be a favorable environment favorable for organized storm clusters/line segments, as well as a few supercells, capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado into the evening across southern and eastern New England. Deep-layer vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent into VA/NC, where the storm mode is expected be predominately multicell clusters. Still, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for occasional wind damage with downbursts. ...Northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over the northern Rockies by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across WY/MT. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined to KS southward along a baroclinic zone, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture across the central/northern High Plains on southeasterly low-level flow. The somewhat larger buoyancy and weaker convective inhibition are expected closer to the high terrain, with the more likely area for storm-cluster development over the mountains of southern MT in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward toward eastern MT with an accompanying threat for severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph. Large hail (mainly 1-1.75 inches in diameter) will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. Farther south, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible immediately east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Forecast wind profiles will be at least marginally favorable for supercells, though storm coverage is in question. The southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume may support an isolated wind-damage threat into western CO. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern Plains, low-midlevel moisture has been gradually increasing from southern NM into AZ. In the wake of scattered overnight storms, cloud breaks will allow surface heating/destabilization across southeast/south central AZ into the afternoon, which will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Convection will form over the high terrain of southeast AZ and spread westward through late afternoon/evening in response to east-southeasterly midlevel flow of 20-25 kt. A typical/deep mixed boundary layer coupled with the moderate buoyancy will support a few strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) with precipitation-loaded downdrafts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over Lower MI will progress eastward toward NY/PA by early tonight, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward across New England and southeastward across the central Appalachians. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough which will focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg as midlevel flow also increases with largely straight, but sufficiently long hodographs. The net result will be a favorable environment favorable for organized storm clusters/line segments, as well as a few supercells, capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado into the evening across southern and eastern New England. Deep-layer vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent into VA/NC, where the storm mode is expected be predominately multicell clusters. Still, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for occasional wind damage with downbursts. ...Northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over the northern Rockies by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across WY/MT. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined to KS southward along a baroclinic zone, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture across the central/northern High Plains on southeasterly low-level flow. The somewhat larger buoyancy and weaker convective inhibition are expected closer to the high terrain, with the more likely area for storm-cluster development over the mountains of southern MT in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward toward eastern MT with an accompanying threat for severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph. Large hail (mainly 1-1.75 inches in diameter) will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. Farther south, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible immediately east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Forecast wind profiles will be at least marginally favorable for supercells, though storm coverage is in question. The southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume may support an isolated wind-damage threat into western CO. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern Plains, low-midlevel moisture has been gradually increasing from southern NM into AZ. In the wake of scattered overnight storms, cloud breaks will allow surface heating/destabilization across southeast/south central AZ into the afternoon, which will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Convection will form over the high terrain of southeast AZ and spread westward through late afternoon/evening in response to east-southeasterly midlevel flow of 20-25 kt. A typical/deep mixed boundary layer coupled with the moderate buoyancy will support a few strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) with precipitation-loaded downdrafts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over Lower MI will progress eastward toward NY/PA by early tonight, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward across New England and southeastward across the central Appalachians. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough which will focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg as midlevel flow also increases with largely straight, but sufficiently long hodographs. The net result will be a favorable environment favorable for organized storm clusters/line segments, as well as a few supercells, capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado into the evening across southern and eastern New England. Deep-layer vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent into VA/NC, where the storm mode is expected be predominately multicell clusters. Still, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for occasional wind damage with downbursts. ...Northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over the northern Rockies by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across WY/MT. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined to KS southward along a baroclinic zone, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture across the central/northern High Plains on southeasterly low-level flow. The somewhat larger buoyancy and weaker convective inhibition are expected closer to the high terrain, with the more likely area for storm-cluster development over the mountains of southern MT in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward toward eastern MT with an accompanying threat for severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph. Large hail (mainly 1-1.75 inches in diameter) will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. Farther south, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible immediately east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Forecast wind profiles will be at least marginally favorable for supercells, though storm coverage is in question. The southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume may support an isolated wind-damage threat into western CO. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern Plains, low-midlevel moisture has been gradually increasing from southern NM into AZ. In the wake of scattered overnight storms, cloud breaks will allow surface heating/destabilization across southeast/south central AZ into the afternoon, which will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Convection will form over the high terrain of southeast AZ and spread westward through late afternoon/evening in response to east-southeasterly midlevel flow of 20-25 kt. A typical/deep mixed boundary layer coupled with the moderate buoyancy will support a few strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) with precipitation-loaded downdrafts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300547
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form by early next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form around midweek while the system moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE VIH TO 50 NNE SGF TO 50 WNW TBN TO 35 NE VIH. WW 486 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300400Z. ..GRAMS..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX...LSX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-125-300400- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA MONTGOMERY MOC029-300400- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN OKC097-113-117-131-143-145-147-300400- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MAYES OSAGE PAWNEE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER Read more