Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more