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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...far southern Indiana into central Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580... Valid 311947Z - 312145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging/severe wind threat should remain focused across southern Indiana into central Kentucky for the next few hours as a consolidated cold pool becomes established. DISCUSSION...A consolidating cold pool is becoming evident in recent KLVX velocity imagery roughly along the OH River. This may be the start of a somewhat more organized MCS that will pose a relatively focused wind threat to areas downstream - namely central KY. To the southeast of the developing MCS, a more broken, meridionally-oriented, line of disorganized convection is delineating the western edge of a residual cold pool from prior convection where temperatures remain in the 70s and stable billow clouds are noted in visible imagery. As such, the developing MCS will likely continue to propagate south/southeast where buoyancy remains very favorable for convective maintenance (MLCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range). Limited line-orthogonal deep-layer wind shear may be a modulating factor to overall convective intensity given west/northwest deep-layer wind shear vectors, but the high-CAPE environment and surging cold pool should continue to support a damaging/severe wind threat for the next few hours. ..Moore.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK... LAT...LON 38058673 38258662 38388630 38408588 38338555 38208528 37318465 37218483 37138507 37078544 37078574 37108610 37218636 38058673 Read more

Irrigation allows a nursery in Jefferson County to water crops with 25,000 to 30,000 gallons of water daily. Without the irrigation, the drought would have shut them down. WV Public Broadcasting (Charleston, W.V.), July 30, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 20:48:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 21:22:59 GMT

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more

WW 580 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 311755Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to strengthen and pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to 55-70 mph as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Evansville IN to 20 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast NE into north-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311921Z - 312115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase this afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail are expected into this evening. Timing is a bit uncertain, but a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A band of convection has persisted for much of the day near a surface front draped across NE into northwest KS. Cloudiness related to this convection has likely delayed erosion of midlevel capping. However, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to upper 90s F amid steep midlevel lapse rates and dewpoints in the mid 70s F. This is resulting in a corridor of strong to extreme instability. Effective shear magnitudes continue to increase across the region as the upper trough ejects into the northern/central Plains. This should also aid in weakening capping with time into late afternoon. Recent 7 km CAPPI shows deepening/intensifying cores across south-central NE over the past 30-60 minutes. The expectation is that convection will gradually increase over the next couple of hours. While initial convection may be elevated, large hail and damaging gusts will still be possible. With time, the damaging wind risk will increase toward evening with a possible bowing MCS developing over southeast NE. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41139899 41649771 41629614 41119584 40349580 39889626 39459740 39359867 39389943 39529994 39990009 40350012 40699972 41139899 Read more

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 312042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 54(56) 31(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 18(18) 33(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 7(49) 2(51) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 21(39) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312042 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 The convective structure of the depression has continued to improve this afternoon, with plenty of curved bands on satellite imagery wrapping cyclonically around a well-defined center. After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS pass also showed these cyclonic bands well on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0/45-kt from TAFB and T2.5/35-kt from SAB. Given the improvement in structure, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Carlotta, the third named storm of the slow-starting 2024 East Pacific Hurricane Season. Carlotta has been moving a bit more poleward that previously expected, with the most recent 12-h motion averaging around 305/12-kt. This northwestward motion is soon expected to turn back more westward as it comes under the influence of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The global model guidance continues to advertise a broad weakness in this ridging forming on its western side by days 4-5, and a slowdown with some poleward turn is possible in Carlotta's track by the end of the forecast period. Overall, the guidance this cycle has shifted more northward than before, partially due to the initial position, but the NHC track forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, in between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The improvement in Carlotta's structure also could mean it is more poised to intensify faster than previously expected in the short-term. This possibility is reflected by the latest intensity guidance which is notably higher than before, showing Carlotta taking advantage of the favorable low vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) index now indicates a 30-40 percent chance of RI over the next 24 hours. While the NHC intensity forecast will not quite show this rate of intensification yet, it is higher than before, and now peaks Carlotta as a 85-kt Category 2 hurricane in 60-72 hours. This intensity forecast is is pretty good agreement with the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) forecast, but is now a shade under the latest HAFS-A/B forecast. Carlotta is still expect to begin moving over cooler waters by days 4-5 which should begin to induce a gradual weakening by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 16.2N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.8N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.3N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 312042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 31 the center of Carlotta was located near 16.2, -108.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.