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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010719Z - 010845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Conditional potential exists for an increase in strong to severe gusts from 50-65 mph across a part of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into central Illinois. If realized, the threat may only last for a couple hours. DISCUSSION...An uptick in deep convection, largely displaced west of a leading outflow boundary, occurred about 30 minutes ago across a part of northeast MO, seemingly associated with a subtle MCV moving east. A gust of 48 mph was recently measured at the Columbia, MO ASOS where the trailing portion of outflow from this cluster overtook the lead outflow from a separate cluster of deep convection, now over west-central IL. As this northeast MO cluster merges into the leading cluster in west-central IL, an increase in strong to severe gusts may occur farther south in central IL. If this occurs, this may be relatively short-lived, around a couple hours, owing to southwesterly low-level flow roughly paralleling the large-scale convective outflow and lack of stronger forcing for ascent heading into sunrise. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39649121 39829099 39949049 40328969 40208936 39998890 39688874 39318871 38998881 38838920 38589004 38619084 38819164 39649121 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE FACING THE WRONG DIRECTION ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis... A upper low across northeast Illinois Friday morning will move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night in the Upper Ohio Valley. A surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast... A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to strong instability is expected across much of the region as temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of severe gusts. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon moisture is forecast to surge northward into southern Arizona on Friday as temperatures warm over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in storm organization and may result a few strong to severe storms. The deeply mixed boundary layer will support a primary threat of severe gusts. If storms can congeal once they move off the higher terrain, higher probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE FACING THE WRONG DIRECTION ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis... A upper low across northeast Illinois Friday morning will move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night in the Upper Ohio Valley. A surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast... A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to strong instability is expected across much of the region as temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of severe gusts. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon moisture is forecast to surge northward into southern Arizona on Friday as temperatures warm over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in storm organization and may result a few strong to severe storms. The deeply mixed boundary layer will support a primary threat of severe gusts. If storms can congeal once they move off the higher terrain, higher probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE FACING THE WRONG DIRECTION ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis... A upper low across northeast Illinois Friday morning will move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night in the Upper Ohio Valley. A surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast... A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to strong instability is expected across much of the region as temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of severe gusts. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon moisture is forecast to surge northward into southern Arizona on Friday as temperatures warm over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in storm organization and may result a few strong to severe storms. The deeply mixed boundary layer will support a primary threat of severe gusts. If storms can congeal once they move off the higher terrain, higher probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more