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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to Central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern High Plains... Locally strong gusts are possible during the late afternoon to early evening with high-based, low-topped convection amid a weak buoyancy environment. The region will remain between a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Rio Grande Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough slowly moving across CA into AZ. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures should preclude appreciable storm intensity, but well-mixed boundary layers could support sporadic gusts approaching severe levels. ...Central Great Plains... Isolated elevated storms may develop overnight into Saturday morning within a strengthening warm theta-e advection regime. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper elevated buoyancy and limit hail potential to some extent. But sufficient mid to upper-level speed shear could foster small hail production. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to Central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern High Plains... Locally strong gusts are possible during the late afternoon to early evening with high-based, low-topped convection amid a weak buoyancy environment. The region will remain between a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Rio Grande Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough slowly moving across CA into AZ. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures should preclude appreciable storm intensity, but well-mixed boundary layers could support sporadic gusts approaching severe levels. ...Central Great Plains... Isolated elevated storms may develop overnight into Saturday morning within a strengthening warm theta-e advection regime. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper elevated buoyancy and limit hail potential to some extent. But sufficient mid to upper-level speed shear could foster small hail production. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to Central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern High Plains... Locally strong gusts are possible during the late afternoon to early evening with high-based, low-topped convection amid a weak buoyancy environment. The region will remain between a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Rio Grande Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough slowly moving across CA into AZ. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures should preclude appreciable storm intensity, but well-mixed boundary layers could support sporadic gusts approaching severe levels. ...Central Great Plains... Isolated elevated storms may develop overnight into Saturday morning within a strengthening warm theta-e advection regime. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper elevated buoyancy and limit hail potential to some extent. But sufficient mid to upper-level speed shear could foster small hail production. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and damaging winds may occur. An area of locally severe gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and into northeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and MN during the day, with veering midlevel winds into western MN by late afternoon. Farther south, moderate west/southwest winds in the midlevels will extend into NE and IA, with weaker west to northwest winds around a southern Plains upper high from KS/OK into MO and AR. In the high levels, flow will be strongest across the central Plains, with weakening winds over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low will move into southern MB, with a cold front moving into MN and western IA by mid afternoon. A wind shift/surface trough will also extend southward across eastern KS and into northern OK at that time. Southerly surface winds will set up a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of the front/surface trough, and this will aid moderate destabilization across the length of the front, with scattered severe storms from MN to perhaps OK. ...Upper MS Valley... Scattered early day elevated storms are likely to dissipate by midday as they move out of MN/IA into WI, with destabilization in their wake. Strong heating near the surface trough/front along with cool temperatures aloft will yield MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg, beneath 35-40 kt 500 mb winds. A broken line of storms including supercells are expected after 21Z over much of central and eastern MN and into IA. A couple tornadoes are most likely from IA into southern MN and southwest WI where effective SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2. Given the northward lifting of the shortwave trough, and increasing inhibition east of the MS River, the primary threat are may remain relatively narrow. ...Eastern KS into western MO and into OK... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning from IA into northwest MO, near the 850 mb theta-e plume and beneath subtle height falls. A cell or two may persist into the afternoon, likely translating southeastward across western MO. A greater risk of locally severe wind gusts or hail will then develop near and just west of the early day activity, as a plume of steep lapse rates develops out of OK into KS. While midlevel subsidence may limit instability somewhat, plenty of CAPE will be present at or above 2000 J/kg, with a lengthy mid to upper level hodograph by virtue of northwest flow aloft. As such, hail may still occur with the cellular storm modes, and favorable time of day and hot surface conditions will favor locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and damaging winds may occur. An area of locally severe gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and into northeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and MN during the day, with veering midlevel winds into western MN by late afternoon. Farther south, moderate west/southwest winds in the midlevels will extend into NE and IA, with weaker west to northwest winds around a southern Plains upper high from KS/OK into MO and AR. In the high levels, flow will be strongest across the central Plains, with weakening winds over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low will move into southern MB, with a cold front moving into MN and western IA by mid afternoon. A wind shift/surface trough will also extend southward across eastern KS and into northern OK at that time. Southerly surface winds will set up a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of the front/surface trough, and this will aid moderate destabilization across the length of the front, with scattered severe storms from MN to perhaps OK. ...Upper MS Valley... Scattered early day elevated storms are likely to dissipate by midday as they move out of MN/IA into WI, with destabilization in their wake. Strong heating near the surface trough/front along with cool temperatures aloft will yield MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg, beneath 35-40 kt 500 mb winds. A broken line of storms including supercells are expected after 21Z over much of central and eastern MN and into IA. A couple tornadoes are most likely from IA into southern MN and southwest WI where effective SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2. Given the northward lifting of the shortwave trough, and increasing inhibition east of the MS River, the primary threat are may remain relatively narrow. ...Eastern KS into western MO and into OK... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning from IA into northwest MO, near the 850 mb theta-e plume and beneath subtle height falls. A cell or two may persist into the afternoon, likely translating southeastward across western MO. A greater risk of locally severe wind gusts or hail will then develop near and just west of the early day activity, as a plume of steep lapse rates develops out of OK into KS. While midlevel subsidence may limit instability somewhat, plenty of CAPE will be present at or above 2000 J/kg, with a lengthy mid to upper level hodograph by virtue of northwest flow aloft. As such, hail may still occur with the cellular storm modes, and favorable time of day and hot surface conditions will favor locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and damaging winds may occur. An area of locally severe gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and into northeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and MN during the day, with veering midlevel winds into western MN by late afternoon. Farther south, moderate west/southwest winds in the midlevels will extend into NE and IA, with weaker west to northwest winds around a southern Plains upper high from KS/OK into MO and AR. In the high levels, flow will be strongest across the central Plains, with weakening winds over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low will move into southern MB, with a cold front moving into MN and western IA by mid afternoon. A wind shift/surface trough will also extend southward across eastern KS and into northern OK at that time. Southerly surface winds will set up a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of the front/surface trough, and this will aid moderate destabilization across the length of the front, with scattered severe storms from MN to perhaps OK. ...Upper MS Valley... Scattered early day elevated storms are likely to dissipate by midday as they move out of MN/IA into WI, with destabilization in their wake. Strong heating near the surface trough/front along with cool temperatures aloft will yield MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg, beneath 35-40 kt 500 mb winds. A broken line of storms including supercells are expected after 21Z over much of central and eastern MN and into IA. A couple tornadoes are most likely from IA into southern MN and southwest WI where effective SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2. Given the northward lifting of the shortwave trough, and increasing inhibition east of the MS River, the primary threat are may remain relatively narrow. ...Eastern KS into western MO and into OK... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning from IA into northwest MO, near the 850 mb theta-e plume and beneath subtle height falls. A cell or two may persist into the afternoon, likely translating southeastward across western MO. A greater risk of locally severe wind gusts or hail will then develop near and just west of the early day activity, as a plume of steep lapse rates develops out of OK into KS. While midlevel subsidence may limit instability somewhat, plenty of CAPE will be present at or above 2000 J/kg, with a lengthy mid to upper level hodograph by virtue of northwest flow aloft. As such, hail may still occur with the cellular storm modes, and favorable time of day and hot surface conditions will favor locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and damaging winds may occur. An area of locally severe gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and into northeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and MN during the day, with veering midlevel winds into western MN by late afternoon. Farther south, moderate west/southwest winds in the midlevels will extend into NE and IA, with weaker west to northwest winds around a southern Plains upper high from KS/OK into MO and AR. In the high levels, flow will be strongest across the central Plains, with weakening winds over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low will move into southern MB, with a cold front moving into MN and western IA by mid afternoon. A wind shift/surface trough will also extend southward across eastern KS and into northern OK at that time. Southerly surface winds will set up a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of the front/surface trough, and this will aid moderate destabilization across the length of the front, with scattered severe storms from MN to perhaps OK. ...Upper MS Valley... Scattered early day elevated storms are likely to dissipate by midday as they move out of MN/IA into WI, with destabilization in their wake. Strong heating near the surface trough/front along with cool temperatures aloft will yield MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg, beneath 35-40 kt 500 mb winds. A broken line of storms including supercells are expected after 21Z over much of central and eastern MN and into IA. A couple tornadoes are most likely from IA into southern MN and southwest WI where effective SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2. Given the northward lifting of the shortwave trough, and increasing inhibition east of the MS River, the primary threat are may remain relatively narrow. ...Eastern KS into western MO and into OK... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning from IA into northwest MO, near the 850 mb theta-e plume and beneath subtle height falls. A cell or two may persist into the afternoon, likely translating southeastward across western MO. A greater risk of locally severe wind gusts or hail will then develop near and just west of the early day activity, as a plume of steep lapse rates develops out of OK into KS. While midlevel subsidence may limit instability somewhat, plenty of CAPE will be present at or above 2000 J/kg, with a lengthy mid to upper level hodograph by virtue of northwest flow aloft. As such, hail may still occur with the cellular storm modes, and favorable time of day and hot surface conditions will favor locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and damaging winds may occur. An area of locally severe gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and into northeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and MN during the day, with veering midlevel winds into western MN by late afternoon. Farther south, moderate west/southwest winds in the midlevels will extend into NE and IA, with weaker west to northwest winds around a southern Plains upper high from KS/OK into MO and AR. In the high levels, flow will be strongest across the central Plains, with weakening winds over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low will move into southern MB, with a cold front moving into MN and western IA by mid afternoon. A wind shift/surface trough will also extend southward across eastern KS and into northern OK at that time. Southerly surface winds will set up a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of the front/surface trough, and this will aid moderate destabilization across the length of the front, with scattered severe storms from MN to perhaps OK. ...Upper MS Valley... Scattered early day elevated storms are likely to dissipate by midday as they move out of MN/IA into WI, with destabilization in their wake. Strong heating near the surface trough/front along with cool temperatures aloft will yield MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg, beneath 35-40 kt 500 mb winds. A broken line of storms including supercells are expected after 21Z over much of central and eastern MN and into IA. A couple tornadoes are most likely from IA into southern MN and southwest WI where effective SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2. Given the northward lifting of the shortwave trough, and increasing inhibition east of the MS River, the primary threat are may remain relatively narrow. ...Eastern KS into western MO and into OK... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning from IA into northwest MO, near the 850 mb theta-e plume and beneath subtle height falls. A cell or two may persist into the afternoon, likely translating southeastward across western MO. A greater risk of locally severe wind gusts or hail will then develop near and just west of the early day activity, as a plume of steep lapse rates develops out of OK into KS. While midlevel subsidence may limit instability somewhat, plenty of CAPE will be present at or above 2000 J/kg, with a lengthy mid to upper level hodograph by virtue of northwest flow aloft. As such, hail may still occur with the cellular storm modes, and favorable time of day and hot surface conditions will favor locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 09/19/2024 Read more

Richwood has seven to ten days’ worth of water left with some rain in the forecast. West Virginia Watch, Sept 19, 2024 The Nicholas County Commission issued a State of Emergency for water conservation and drought conditions as the community had just four days’ worth of water left. All residents were to conserve wherever possible. The area was in exceptional drought. WSAZ-TV (Huntington, W.V.), Sept 16, 2024 Emergency water conservation was needed in Richwood because the city’s usual source, the Cherry River, has been reduced to a trickle, so the community has been getting water from a small lake ten miles from Richwood. The lake holds enough water to supply the town for about two weeks, and Richwood began drawing water from Summit Lake on August 2. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.), Sept 11, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A NARROW ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible this evening over parts of the central Plains, and from the Red River into the upper Mississippi Valley overnight. ...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley... Cooling aloft with an upper trough will continue eastward across the Dakotas and into MN, with a cold front pushing east and providing a focus for possible storm development. Convection is now forming within a narrow instability axis over eastern ND, and some of the cells could eventually produce severe hail. Additional activity may occur farther south as well, although coverage is less certain. Cool air aloft with veering winds with height will tend to favor sporadic hail. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2085. ...Central Plains... Warm temperatures and peak heating has led to isolated storms along a retreating dryline from south-central KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. While capping should eventually result in dissipation in a couple hours, marginal hail or locally strong gusts will be possible in the near term. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A NARROW ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible this evening over parts of the central Plains, and from the Red River into the upper Mississippi Valley overnight. ...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley... Cooling aloft with an upper trough will continue eastward across the Dakotas and into MN, with a cold front pushing east and providing a focus for possible storm development. Convection is now forming within a narrow instability axis over eastern ND, and some of the cells could eventually produce severe hail. Additional activity may occur farther south as well, although coverage is less certain. Cool air aloft with veering winds with height will tend to favor sporadic hail. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2085. ...Central Plains... Warm temperatures and peak heating has led to isolated storms along a retreating dryline from south-central KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. While capping should eventually result in dissipation in a couple hours, marginal hail or locally strong gusts will be possible in the near term. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A NARROW ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible this evening over parts of the central Plains, and from the Red River into the upper Mississippi Valley overnight. ...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley... Cooling aloft with an upper trough will continue eastward across the Dakotas and into MN, with a cold front pushing east and providing a focus for possible storm development. Convection is now forming within a narrow instability axis over eastern ND, and some of the cells could eventually produce severe hail. Additional activity may occur farther south as well, although coverage is less certain. Cool air aloft with veering winds with height will tend to favor sporadic hail. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2085. ...Central Plains... Warm temperatures and peak heating has led to isolated storms along a retreating dryline from south-central KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. While capping should eventually result in dissipation in a couple hours, marginal hail or locally strong gusts will be possible in the near term. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2024 Read more

MD 2085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota into far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182334Z - 190100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across portions of northeastern ND, focused within a north/south-oriented confluence band, and near an antecedent differential heating zone. This activity may be aided by a lobe of midlevel ascent (evident in water-vapor imagery) rotating around the eastern periphery of a midlevel low over eastern MT. Middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of the developing storms. Additionally, regional VWP depicts a long hodograph with modest low-level hodograph curvature -- characterized by around 45 kt of effective shear. Given subtle mesoscale forcing, storm maturation is uncertain (especially given increasing nocturnal static stability), though the aforementioned parameter space will conditionally support a couple organized storms/supercells capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Any severe threat here is expected to remain too isolated for a watch at this time. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47429858 47399898 47609941 47889981 48140007 48590026 48940030 49090015 49159962 49169781 49089698 48839669 48129670 47719702 47429858 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 18 23:37:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota into far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182334Z - 190100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across portions of northeastern ND, focused within a north/south-oriented confluence band, and near an antecedent differential heating zone. This activity may be aided by a lobe of midlevel ascent (evident in water-vapor imagery) rotating around the eastern periphery of a midlevel low over eastern MT. Middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of the developing storms. Additionally, regional VWP depicts a long hodograph with modest low-level hodograph curvature -- characterized by around 45 kt of effective shear. Given subtle mesoscale forcing, storm maturation is uncertain (especially given increasing nocturnal static stability), though the aforementioned parameter space will conditionally support a couple organized storms/supercells capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Any severe threat here is expected to remain too isolated for a watch at this time. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47429858 47399898 47609941 47889981 48140007 48590026 48940030 49090015 49159962 49169781 49089698 48839669 48129670 47719702 47429858 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 18 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Areas affected...The eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182042Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening across the eastern Texas Panhandle and into adjacent portions of northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorm coverage should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance, but instances of severe hail/wind will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows deepening cumulus along a weakly confluent surface trough across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. The southerly flow regime across the region has helped offset the influence of diurnal mixing with dewpoints remaining the low to mid 60s. Concurrently, temperatures are warming into the low to mid 90s, which is eroding inhibition and supporting MLCAPE upwards of around 1000 J/kg. Any further improvements to the thermodynamic environment will be modest through late afternoon, namely in the form of steepening low-level lapse rates as temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s. However, nearly zonal 30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated mid-level hodographs with similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic environment should support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two with an attendant risk for large hail (most likely up to 1.0-1.75 inches in diameter) and severe winds. Based on the aforementioned satellite trends, at least a couple of storms appear probable, but the fairly weak forcing for ascent along the surface trough and stronger inhibition downstream into OK and KS suggests that storm coverage and duration may be limited. Consequently, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Moore/Gleason.. 09/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35020160 36810046 37789985 38129965 38369910 38379879 38259853 38039837 37809827 37549819 37309817 37039825 36739841 36279872 35839903 35389952 34999987 34700026 34590067 34620121 34670144 34850167 35020160 Read more