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The Ohio Department of Agriculture is creating an Ohio Hay Directory. Farmers aiming to buy or sell hay can be included in the directory. Richland Source (Mansfield, Ohio), Sept 18, 2024

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a 50-65 kt 500-mb jetlet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across eastern NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms should be capable of producing at least isolated severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be curtailed by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential is evident on Saturday afternoon and evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. As such, a severe threat area has not yet been delineated but may be warranted in later outlooks if predictability increases. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a 50-65 kt 500-mb jetlet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across eastern NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms should be capable of producing at least isolated severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be curtailed by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential is evident on Saturday afternoon and evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. As such, a severe threat area has not yet been delineated but may be warranted in later outlooks if predictability increases. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a 50-65 kt 500-mb jetlet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across eastern NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms should be capable of producing at least isolated severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be curtailed by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential is evident on Saturday afternoon and evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. As such, a severe threat area has not yet been delineated but may be warranted in later outlooks if predictability increases. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a 50-65 kt 500-mb jetlet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across eastern NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms should be capable of producing at least isolated severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be curtailed by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential is evident on Saturday afternoon and evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. As such, a severe threat area has not yet been delineated but may be warranted in later outlooks if predictability increases. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a 50-65 kt 500-mb jetlet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across eastern NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms should be capable of producing at least isolated severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be curtailed by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential is evident on Saturday afternoon and evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. As such, a severe threat area has not yet been delineated but may be warranted in later outlooks if predictability increases. ..Grams.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more