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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more