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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more