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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more