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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more