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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more